Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Heart of Midlothian to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 59% · bookies 59% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
All three lean towards an away win, with the coach and sceptic close to the published 50% and the dressing room giving Motherwell a little more because of Hearts' two-day turnaround. On goals, the sceptic's head-to-head caution trims the over slightly, but 3+ goals still look more likely than not.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Coach thinks Heart of Midlothian are underrated; The Dressing Room thinks Motherwell are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersHearts' attack travels well enough to edge an open game at Fir Park.
Hearts score 2.22 per game and have failed to score in none, while Motherwell concede 1.78 per game with only 22% clean sheets. Both teams score in 70% of the model's outcomes and 3+ goals land at 72%, so an open, high-scoring afternoon is the likeliest shape.
Heart of Midlothian: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Dressing Room
the table and pressureHearts' heavy fixture load gives Motherwell a crack despite the gap.
Motherwell's only win in six came at home, and fresher legs could keep this competitive.
Motherwell: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 72% over line looks slightly generous given the head-to-head.
The last six meetings average 2.5 goals with four draws and no Motherwell wins, and Hearts' away form reads L L D L W with 13 conceded. The 50% away number is fair, but I'd shade the over down a touch from 72% given those away struggles.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Heart of Midlothian are favourites at 46%, with Motherwell on 29% and the draw on 25%. Motherwell are 10th and Heart of Midlothian 3rd in the Scottish Premiership. In their last five league games, Motherwell won none and Heart of Midlothian two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Motherwell win or draw
- 54%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Heart of Midlothian win or draw
- 71%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 59%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Motherwell and 1.7 from Heart of Midlothian. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 2–1 (7%), 0–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% | 21% | 50% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1055 | |
| 2 | 29% | 25% | 46% | Prices moved | #1318 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Motherwell: last 6
LLLLLW · 6 scored, 12 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Kilmarnock | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Celtic | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Dundee | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | vs Aberdeen | 0–4 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Rangers | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs Dundee Utd | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LLWLW
Heart of Midlothian: last 6
LLDWDL · 9 scored, 13 conceded
| 22 Oct | at Trabzonspor UEFA Europa Conference League | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Celtic | 1–7 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs FC Nordsjaelland UEFA Europa Conference League | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs ST Mirren | 5–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Kilmarnock | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | at Falkirk | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLDLW
Season stats
| Motherwell | Heart of Midlothian | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.22 | Goals scored per game | 2.22 |
| 1.78 | Goals conceded per game | 1.67 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game at home | 3.25 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game away | 1.40 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 89% |
| 44% | Both teams scored | 78% |
| 22% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 44% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Scottish Premiership table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 10 | +19 | 27 | WWWLW |
| 2 | Rangers | 10 | +10 | 23 | WDWWW |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 10 | +7 | 19 | WLWDL |
| 4 | Dundee Utd | 10 | +0 | 15 | WDWWD |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | +2 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 6 | ST Mirren | 10 | -7 | 13 | WLLLL |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | +0 | 12 | WWLDW |
| 8 | ST Johnstone | 10 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | -1 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 10 | Motherwell | 10 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | -13 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 12 | Hibernian | 10 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Motherwell won 0, Heart of Midlothian 2, 4 draws; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2026 | Motherwell | 1–1 | Heart of Midlothian | Premiership |
| 11 Apr 2026 | Heart of Midlothian | 3–1 | Motherwell | Premiership |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Motherwell | 0–0 | Heart of Midlothian | Premiership |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Heart of Midlothian | 3–3 | Motherwell | Premiership |
| 10 May 2025 | Heart of Midlothian | 3–0 | Motherwell | Premiership |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Motherwell | 0–0 | Heart of Midlothian | Premiership |
Match context
- Rest days
- Motherwell 8Heart of Midlothian 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Motherwell 1 · Heart of Midlothian 3
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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