Dundee United vs Aberdeen prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Dundee to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 55% · ✓ 5 goals
The Verdict
A tight, low-margin derby profile.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think a draw is underrated. The Coach thinks Aberdeen are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersAberdeen have failed to score in 56% of games, which caps the upside, but Dundee United's 33% clean-sheet rate and 1.6 expected goals keep the over live.
Aberdeen: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo mid-table sides with little separating them - a tight, tense affair is on the cards.
Dundee United sit 6th on 12 points, Aberdeen 7th on 11 - one point and one place apart after nine games. Both have won three, and Dundee United's home form (W D L D, 3 scored, 4 conceded) offers no clear edge. Equal rest of 7 days levels the physical stakes.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market's 55% over 2.5 looks generous given these sides' scoring records.
Both teams are on 44% over 2.5 this season and both-teams-scored is just 33% apiece, well below the published 57%. Head-to-head averages 2.2 goals with three draws in six, and Aberdeen fail to score 56% of the time. The 55% over line looks a touch high; I'd shade it down.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Dundee United are favourites at 47%, with Aberdeen on 27% and the draw on 26%. Dundee United are 6th and Aberdeen 7th in the Scottish Premiership. In their last five league games, Dundee United won two and Aberdeen two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Dundee United win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Aberdeen win or draw
- 53%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Dundee United and 1.2 from Aberdeen. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 1–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Dundee United: last 6
DWWDLW · 10 scored, 5 conceded
| 17 Oct | at ST Johnstone | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Hibernian | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at ST Mirren | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Falkirk | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Sep | at Motherwell | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | at Kilmarnock | 4–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: WDLD
Aberdeen: last 6
WLDWDL · 8 scored, 6 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs ST Mirren | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs ST Johnstone | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Hibernian | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | at Motherwell | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Kilmarnock | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Sep | at Celtic | 0–3 | L |
Last 4 away: DWLL
Season stats
| Dundee United | Aberdeen | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.22 | Goals scored per game | 1.11 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 1.11 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| 33% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 56% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Scottish Premiership table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 10 | +19 | 27 | WWWLW |
| 2 | Rangers | 10 | +10 | 23 | WDWWW |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 10 | +7 | 19 | WLWDL |
| 4 | Dundee United | 10 | +0 | 15 | WDWWD |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | +2 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 6 | ST Mirren | 10 | -7 | 13 | WLLLL |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | +0 | 12 | WWLDW |
| 8 | ST Johnstone | 10 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | -1 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 10 | Motherwell | 10 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | -13 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 12 | Hibernian | 10 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Dundee United won 2, Aberdeen 1, 3 draws; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2026 | Aberdeen | 2–0 | Dundee United | Premiership |
| 24 Feb 2026 | Dundee United | 0–0 | Aberdeen | Premiership |
| 27 Dec 2025 | Aberdeen | 1–1 | Dundee United | Premiership |
| 23 Sep 2025 | Dundee United | 2–0 | Aberdeen | Premiership |
| 17 May 2025 | Dundee United | 2–1 | Aberdeen | Premiership |
| 2 Mar 2025 | Aberdeen | 2–2 | Dundee United | Premiership |
Match context
- Rest days
- Dundee United 7Aberdeen 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Dundee United 1 · Aberdeen 2
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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