Falkirk vs Kilmarnock prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Falkirk to win: 52%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 58% · bookies 58% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
Kilmarnock's soft defence and the 3.8 goals per game in recent head-to-heads support the goals expectation, while Falkirk's steadier league form nudges the 1X2 their way.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Kilmarnock's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Kilmarnock favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersLeaky defences on both sides point to chances at both ends.
BothTeamsScore rates sit at 78% and 56%, and both clubs see 56% of matches go over 2.5.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo sides near each other in the table with plenty to play for.
Falkirk sit 9th on 9 points, Kilmarnock 11th on 8, so the gaps are tiny and a win matters for both.
Kilmarnock: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe numbers look about right, with H2H backing the home lean.
Head-to-head reads Falkirk 4 wins to 2 with 3.8 goals per game, including a 5-1 this year, so the 52% home price looks fair. Kilmarnock conceding 2.22 a game supports the 58% over line, though their last four away trips produced just five goals.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Falkirk are favourites at 52%, with Kilmarnock on 24% and the draw on 24%. Falkirk are 9th and Kilmarnock 11th in the Scottish Premiership. In their last five league games, Falkirk won two and Kilmarnock two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Falkirk win or draw
- 76%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Kilmarnock win or draw
- 48%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 35%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Falkirk and 1.2 from Kilmarnock. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 1–2 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% | 24% | 24% | Stats preview | #705 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Falkirk: last 6
WLDWDL · 8 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Dundee | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at ST Johnstone | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Heart Of Midlothian | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Dundee Utd | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Sep | vs Rangers | 1–2 | L |
Last 4 at home: LWLL
Kilmarnock: last 6
WLDWDL · 6 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Motherwell | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Rangers | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Heart Of Midlothian | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | at Hibernian | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Aberdeen | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Sep | vs ST Mirren | 0–1 | L |
Last 4 away: LWDL
Season stats
| Falkirk | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.11 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 2.22 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 56% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| 78% | Both teams scored | 56% |
| 11% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 22% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Scottish Premiership table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dundee Utd | 10 | +0 | 15 | WDWWD |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | +2 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 6 | ST Mirren | 10 | -7 | 13 | WLLLL |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | +0 | 12 | WWLDW |
| 8 | ST Johnstone | 10 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | -1 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 10 | Motherwell | 10 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | -13 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 12 | Hibernian | 10 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Falkirk won 4, Kilmarnock 2, 0 draws; 3.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | Falkirk | 5–1 | Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Kilmarnock | 0–1 | Falkirk | Premiership |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Falkirk | 3–1 | Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 24 Jun 2022 | Falkirk | 1–4 | Kilmarnock | Friendlies Clubs |
| 4 Sep 2021 | Kilmarnock | 3–1 | Falkirk | Challenge Cup |
| 6 Oct 2020 | Falkirk | 3–0 | Kilmarnock | League Cup |
Match context
- Rest days
- Falkirk 7Kilmarnock 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Falkirk 1 · Kilmarnock 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
