Stenhousemuir vs Livingston prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Livingston to win: 54%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three see a tight, low-scoring contest: the coach and sceptic point to strong home defensive numbers and Livingston's patchy away form, while the dressing room notes Stenhousemuir's 2nd-place standing. The over 2.5 at 47% looks fair to slightly high given both sides' under-2.5 records.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks Stenhousemuir are underrated; The Sceptic thinks a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo tight defences point to a low-scoring night under the lights.
Stenhousemuir concede just 0.73 per game with clean sheets in 55% of matches, while Livingston fail to score in 33% away from home. Both teams score only 27% in Stenhousemuir games, and just 18% go over 2.5 goals.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSecond versus sixth, and the home side's league form earns respect.
Stenhousemuir sit 2nd on 23 points from 11 games (W7 D2 L2) and have won four of their last five at home. Livingston are 6th with 17 points from 12 and have lost two of their last three. Equal rest, so the table gap favours the hosts.
Stenhousemuir: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market leans hard on Livingston, but their away form is patchy.
Livingston at 54% looks generous given their away record of D W W L L and two recent home defeats. Stenhousemuir's 0-3 loss at Partick and 0-2 at Inverness hint at fragility, but 21% for the hosts seems too low; the draw at 25% carries the imbalance.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Livingston are favourites at 54%, with Stenhousemuir on 21% and the draw on 25%. Stenhousemuir are 2nd and Livingston 6th in the Scottish Championship. In their last five league games, Stenhousemuir won two and Livingston two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Stenhousemuir win or draw
- 46%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Livingston win or draw
- 79%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 73%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 26%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 49%
- No
- 51%
We expect about 0.9 goals from Stenhousemuir and 1.6 from Livingston. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (12%), 0–2 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% | 25% | 54% | Stats preview | #2086 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Stenhousemuir: last 6
LDLWWW · 4 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Partick | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Raith Rovers | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Inverness CT | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Sep | at Ayr Utd | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Arbroath | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Sep | vs Partick | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWWW
Livingston: last 6
WDLLWD · 7 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Arbroath | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Dunfermline | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Partick | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Ayr Utd | 1–2 | L |
| 25 Sep | at Raith Rovers | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Inverness CT | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: DWWLL
Season stats
| Stenhousemuir | Livingston | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.18 | Goals scored per game | 1.25 |
| 0.73 | Goals conceded per game | 0.92 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 1.29 |
| 0.83 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 18% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 27% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 55% | Clean sheets | 42% |
| 18% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 11 and 12 games.
Scottish Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 12 | +11 | 25 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 11 | +5 | 23 | LDLWW |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 12 | +7 | 21 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 12 | +5 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 11 | +3 | 18 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Livingston | 12 | +4 | 17 | WDLLW |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | -2 | 12 | LDWLW |
| 8 | Arbroath | 12 | -11 | 11 | LLLLW |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | -9 | 7 | WWLLL |
Match context
- Travel for Livingston
- 22 km
- Rest days
- Stenhousemuir 6Livingston 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Stenhousemuir 2 · Livingston 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 8 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Scottish Championship average: 2.00 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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