Ayr United vs Queen's Park prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Ayr to win: 53%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings converge on Ayr United as clear favourites, close to the published 54/26/21 split, with no analyst moving more than a few points away. On goals, the sceptic and the coach both see a low-scoring game, nudging the over 2.5 below the published 47%, so a home win in a tighter, lower-event match is the shared picture.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Ayr United's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersAyr's defence should handle an away side that barely scores on the road.
Ayr United concede 1.09 a game but face a Queen's Park side that scores 0.17 a game away and have failed to score in 67% of their league matches.
Ayr: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureForm, rest and league position all point towards the home side.
Queen's Park sit 10th with 7 points from 12 games and a run of five defeats in six; Ayr United are 7th on 12 points from 11 games and had 14 days' rest against their opponents' 7. A struggling travelling side on one win all spell faces a fresher home team.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices broadly look right, though the home number feels a touch strong.
The published 54% home price sits comfortably beside Ayr's 2-0 win at Queen's Park earlier this season, though their home form of L D L L D is poor. The 47% over 2.5 looks slightly generous given the 2.0 goals-per-match environment, and 73% for two-plus goals is fair.
Ayr: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Ayr United are favourites at 53%, with Queen's Park on 21% and the draw on 26%. Ayr United are 7th and Queen's Park 10th in the Scottish Championship. In their last five league games, Ayr United won two and Queen's Park one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Ayr United win or draw
- 79%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Queen's Park win or draw
- 46%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 73%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 26%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 49%
- No
- 51%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Ayr United and 0.9 from Queen's Park. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% | 26% | 21% | Stats preview | #1980 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Ayr United: last 6
LDWLWL · 6 scored, 7 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Partick | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Dunfermline | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Livingston | 2–1 | W |
| 25 Sep | vs Stenhousemuir | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Sep | at Queen's Park | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Inverness CT | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: LDLLD
Queen's Park: last 6
LLWLLL · 3 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Dunfermline | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Morton | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Inverness CT | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Raith Rovers | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Sep | at Arbroath | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Ayr Utd | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLD
Season stats
| Ayr United | Queen's Park | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.91 | Goals scored per game | 0.50 |
| 1.09 | Goals conceded per game | 1.58 |
| 0.83 | Scored per game at home | 0.83 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.17 |
| 18% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 45% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 18% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 36% | Failed to score | 67% |
League matches only, 11 and 12 games.
Scottish Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Inverness CT | 12 | +5 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 11 | +3 | 18 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Livingston | 12 | +4 | 17 | WDLLW |
| 7 | Ayr United | 11 | -2 | 12 | LDWLW |
| 8 | Arbroath | 12 | -11 | 11 | LLLLW |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | -9 | 7 | WWLLL |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 12 | -13 | 7 | LLWLL |
Match context
- Travel for Queen's Park
- 50 km
- Rest days
- Ayr United 14Queen's Park 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Ayr United 0 · Queen's Park 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 8 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Scottish Championship average: 2.00 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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