Arbroath vs Raith Rovers prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Raith to win: 50%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 58% · bookies 58%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
Two cards lean under 2.5 and one slightly over, so the 42% line is fair. The one soft spot is Raith's away attacking record (1.17 per game), which tempers their 50%.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Arbroath's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Arbroath favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersRaith's control at both ends should contain a blunt Arbroath attack
Arbroath's home games are low-scoring: five scored and four conceded in their last five there.
Arbroath: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureRaith's cushion and Arbroath's slump point the same way
Raith sit 3rd with 21 points from 12 games; Arbroath are 8th on 11 points, losing seven of twelve and on a run of five defeats in six. Raith's away form reads two wins in five, and both sides had a full seven days' rest, so fatigue is no excuse for the home side's poor run.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices look fair, though Raith's away scoring may be slightly overpriced
The 50% for Raith sits well with their 3rd place record and 0.75 conceded per game, but their away scoring is only 1.17 per game against an Arbroath side that fails to score 58% of the time. Both-teams-score at 45% looks generous given both sit at 33% this season; under 2.5 appeals slightly.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Raith Rovers are favourites at 50%, with Arbroath on 21% and the draw on 29%. Arbroath are 8th and Raith Rovers 3rd in the Scottish Championship. In their last five league games, Arbroath won one and Raith Rovers two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Arbroath win or draw
- 50%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Raith Rovers win or draw
- 79%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 68%
- 3+ goals
- 42%
- 4+ goals
- 21%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 45%
- No
- 55%
We expect about 0.9 goals from Arbroath and 1.5 from Raith Rovers. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (12%), 0–2 (10%), 0–0 (9%), 1–2 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% | 28% | 50% | Stats preview | #1982 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Arbroath: last 6
LLLLWL · 3 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Livingston | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Inverness CT | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Morton | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Partick | 0–3 | L |
| 25 Sep | vs Queen's Park | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Stenhousemuir | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: LWDWD
Raith Rovers: last 6
LDWWLD · 5 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Inverness CT | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Stenhousemuir | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Queen's Park | 2–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Morton | 2–1 | W |
| 25 Sep | vs Livingston | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Partick | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: DWDWL
Season stats
| Arbroath | Raith Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | Goals scored per game | 1.33 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 0.75 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 0.29 | Scored per game away | 1.17 |
| 42% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| 33% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 42% |
| 58% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 12 games each.
Scottish Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 12 | +11 | 25 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 11 | +5 | 23 | LDLWW |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 12 | +7 | 21 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 12 | +5 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 11 | +3 | 18 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Livingston | 12 | +4 | 17 | WDLLW |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | -2 | 12 | LDWLW |
| 8 | Arbroath | 12 | -11 | 11 | LLLLW |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | -9 | 7 | WWLLL |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 12 | -13 | 7 | LLWLL |
Match context
- Travel for Raith Rovers
- 60 km
- Rest days
- Arbroath 7Raith Rovers 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Arbroath 1 · Raith Rovers 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 5 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Scottish Championship average: 2.00 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
