Partick vs Greenock Morton prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Partick to win: 82%, about 4 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 65% · bookies 65%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings agree Partick are strong favourites, close to the published 82%, on the back of a 25-point lead at the top of the form table and a defence that has not conceded at home in five.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Partick's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersPartick's defence at home should smother a leaky Morton attack
Partick concede just 0.33 per game and kept clean sheets in 67% of matches, with seven scored and none conceded in their last five at home. Morton score only 0.80 per game away and failed to score in 36% of matches. Both teams score just 25% for Partick, so a one-sided scoreline looks likely.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTop against bottom-shaped form, with Partick fresher despite Morton's break
Partick sit 1st on 25 points from 12 games, unbeaten in six, while Morton are 9th with 7 points from 11 and have lost four of their last six. Partick have had 7 days' rest; Morton 14 days without a game, which may help or rust them. The gap in points and momentum points firmly home.
Partick: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome dominance looks right, but the goals line may be a touch high
The 82% home number matches the form gap: Morton have lost four of their last five away, conceding eight in five.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Partick are clear favourites at 82%, with Greenock Morton on 6% and the draw on 12%. Partick are 1st and Greenock Morton 9th in the Scottish Championship. In their last five league games, Partick won four and Greenock Morton two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Partick win or draw
- 94%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 88%
- Greenock Morton win or draw
- 18%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 65%
- 4+ goals
- 43%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 43%
- No
- 57%
We expect about 2.7 goals from Partick and 0.6 from Greenock Morton. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 3–0 (12%), 1–0 (10%), 4–0 (8%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 73% | 19% | 8% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2078 | |
| 2 | 82% | 12% | 6% | Prices moved | #2168 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Partick: last 6
WDWWWD · 10 scored, 2 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Stenhousemuir | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | at Dunfermline | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Oct | at Ayr Utd | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Livingston | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Arbroath | 3–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Raith Rovers | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWDWD
Greenock Morton: last 6
WWLLLL · 6 scored, 10 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Queen's Park | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Arbroath | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Raith Rovers | 1–2 | L |
| 25 Sep | at Inverness CT | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Dunfermline | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Livingston | 1–4 | L |
Last 5 away: WLLDL
Season stats
| Partick | Greenock Morton | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.25 | Goals scored per game | 0.82 |
| 0.33 | Goals conceded per game | 1.64 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 0.83 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.80 |
| 25% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 25% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 67% | Clean sheets | 9% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 36% |
League matches only, 12 and 11 games.
Scottish Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 12 | +11 | 25 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 11 | +5 | 23 | LDLWW |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 12 | +7 | 21 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 12 | +5 | 19 | WWLWW |
| … | |||||
| 6 | Livingston | 12 | +4 | 17 | WDLLW |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | -2 | 12 | LDWLW |
| 8 | Arbroath | 12 | -11 | 11 | LLLLW |
| 9 | Greenock Morton | 11 | -9 | 7 | WWLLL |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 12 | -13 | 7 | LLWLL |
Match context
- Travel for Greenock Morton
- 32 km
- Rest days
- Partick 7Greenock Morton 14
- Matches in the last 14 days: Partick 2 · Greenock Morton 0
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 3 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Scottish Championship average: 2.00 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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