Dunfermline vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Dunfermline to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three readings suggest a closely contested match, with Dunfermline being favoured slightly at home. While Inverness shows strong offensive metrics, Dunfermline's defensive stability and home form keep the draw probability high. The overall expectation points towards a low-scoring affair, consistent with the published over 2.5 goals probability of 47%.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Inverness Caledonian Thistle's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes Inverness Caledonian Thistle favourites. The Sceptic thinks Dunfermline are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersDunfermline's home scoring rate of 1.00 per game provides a solid foundation for this fixture.
Dunfermline averages 0.82 goals scored per game, while Inverness averages 1.33. Dunfermline's home scoring rate is 1.00 per game, contrasting with their low 0.55 goals conceded per game overall.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe pressure is balanced as both sides have 7 days of rest, but Inverness holds a slight edge in the standings.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle sits 4th with 19 points from 12 games, while Dunfermline is 5th with 18 points from 11 games. Both sides have 7 days of rest, but Inverness has played only 1 game in the last 14 days.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market appears reasonable, though Dunfermline's defensive record suggests a tighter contest than the odds imply.
The market suggests a 30% chance for Inverness, but their away form has seen them score 9 goals in 5 matches while conceding 8. Dunfermline's season record shows they have failed to score in 27% of matches.
Dunfermline: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Dunfermline are slight favourites at 42%, with Inverness Caledonian Thistle on 30% and the draw on 28%. Dunfermline are 5th and Inverness Caledonian Thistle 4th in the Scottish Championship. In their last five league games, Dunfermline won two and Inverness Caledonian Thistle four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Dunfermline win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Inverness Caledonian Thistle win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 46%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Dunfermline and 1.1 from Inverness Caledonian Thistle. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 28% | 30% | Stats preview | #1981 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Dunfermline: last 6
WDDDWW · 6 scored, 2 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Queen's Park | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Partick | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Livingston | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Ayr Utd | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Morton | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Queen's Park | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DDWWD
Inverness Caledonian Thistle: last 6
WWLWWD · 11 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Raith Rovers | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Arbroath | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | at Queen's Park | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Stenhousemuir | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Sep | vs Morton | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Livingston | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: WLDWL
Season stats
| Dunfermline | Inverness Caledonian Thistle | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.82 | Goals scored per game | 1.33 |
| 0.55 | Goals conceded per game | 0.92 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.17 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 0% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 36% | Both teams scored | 42% |
| 55% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 11 and 12 games.
Scottish Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 12 | +11 | 25 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 11 | +5 | 23 | LDLWW |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 12 | +7 | 21 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle | 12 | +5 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 11 | +3 | 18 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Livingston | 12 | +4 | 17 | WDLLW |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | -2 | 12 | LDWLW |
| 8 | Arbroath | 12 | -11 | 11 | LLLLW |
Match context
- Travel for Inverness Caledonian Thistle
- 163 km
- Rest days
- Dunfermline 7Inverness Caledonian Thistle 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Dunfermline 2 · Inverness Caledonian Thistle 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 2 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Scottish Championship average: 2.00 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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