Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Dunfermline to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 58% · bookies 58%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean towards Dunfermline, matching the published 47%, with the sceptic nudging the hosts up on strong home form. The coach's case on two frugal defences keeps the over below the published 42%, though Stenhousemuir's home scoring rate softens that. A tight, possibly low-scoring match with a slight away edge is the shared read.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Stenhousemuir's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Stenhousemuir favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo tight defences point to a low-scoring match despite the head-to-head history.
Dunfermline concede just 0.55 per game and Stenhousemuir 0.73, with both keeping clean sheets 55% of the time. Both teams score just 27% and 36%, so goals look scarce.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe hosts sit higher but look leggy; the visitors arrive fresher in rhythm.
Stenhousemuir are 2nd with 23 points from 11 games, but have lost two of their last three league games and played only twice in 14 days before this. Dunfermline, 5th on 18 points, are unbeaten in their last six and have played three games in 14 days, so their match sharpness may tell.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may underrate a home side with the best home form in the data.
Stenhousemuir have won four of their last five at home, scoring 8 and conceding 2, and they score 1.60 per game at home. The prices give them just 24%, which feels low for a side 2nd in the table. Dunfermline's away scoring is modest at 0.67 per game, yet they get 47%.
Stenhousemuir: clearly underrated
Med Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Dunfermline are favourites at 47%, with Stenhousemuir on 24% and the draw on 29%. Stenhousemuir are 2nd and Dunfermline 5th in the Scottish Championship. In their last five league games, Stenhousemuir won two and Dunfermline two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Stenhousemuir win or draw
- 53%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Dunfermline win or draw
- 76%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 68%
- 3+ goals
- 41%
- 4+ goals
- 21%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 46%
- No
- 54%
We expect about 0.9 goals from Stenhousemuir and 1.4 from Dunfermline. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (10%), 0–2 (9%), 1–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24% | 29% | 47% | Stats preview | #1617 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Stenhousemuir: last 6
LDLWWW · 4 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Partick | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Raith Rovers | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Inverness CT | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Sep | at Ayr Utd | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Arbroath | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Sep | vs Partick | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWWW
Dunfermline: last 6
WDDDWW · 6 scored, 2 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Queen's Park | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Partick | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Livingston | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Ayr Utd | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Morton | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Queen's Park | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WDWDL
Season stats
| Stenhousemuir | Dunfermline | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.18 | Goals scored per game | 0.82 |
| 0.73 | Goals conceded per game | 0.55 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.83 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 18% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 0% |
| 27% | Both teams scored | 36% |
| 55% | Clean sheets | 55% |
| 18% | Failed to score | 27% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Scottish Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 12 | +11 | 25 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 11 | +5 | 23 | LDLWW |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 12 | +7 | 21 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 12 | +5 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 11 | +3 | 18 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Livingston | 12 | +4 | 17 | WDLLW |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | -2 | 12 | LDWLW |
| 8 | Arbroath | 12 | -11 | 11 | LLLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Stenhousemuir won 0, Dunfermline 6, 0 draws; 3.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2025 | Dunfermline | 3–0 | Stenhousemuir | FA Cup |
| 24 Jul 2021 | Dunfermline | 4–1 | Stenhousemuir | League Cup |
| 5 Mar 2016 | Dunfermline | 5–0 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
| 6 Feb 2016 | Stenhousemuir | 0–3 | Dunfermline | League One |
| 19 Dec 2015 | Dunfermline | 1–0 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
| 19 Sep 2015 | Stenhousemuir | 0–5 | Dunfermline | League One |
Match context
- Travel for Dunfermline
- 22 km
- Rest days
- Stenhousemuir 3Dunfermline 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Stenhousemuir 2 · Dunfermline 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 8°C · wind 27 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- G. Irvine
- Goals in this league
- Scottish Championship average: 2.00 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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