San Telmo vs Defensores de Belgrano prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
A draw is the most likely result: 49%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 82% · bookies 82% · ✓ 0 goals
In short
No clear favourite: a draw is the single most likely result at 49%. San Telmo are 15th and Defensores de Belgrano 13th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, San Telmo won three and Defensores de Belgrano two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- San Telmo win or draw
- 71%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 51%
- Defensores de Belgrano win or draw
- 77%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 38%
- 3+ goals
- 14%
- 4+ goals
- 4%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 23%
- No
- 77%
We expect about 0.6 goals from San Telmo and 0.7 from Defensores de Belgrano. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–0 (27%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 4. Next: 0–1 (19%), 1–0 (16%), 1–1 (12%), 0–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% | 41% | 30% | Stats preview | #196 | |
| 2 | 28% | 43% | 29% | Prices moved | #257 | |
| 3 | 29% | 42% | 30% | Updated news and prices | #259 | |
| 4 | 28% | 43% | 29% | Prices moved | #270 | |
| 5 | 23% | 49% | 29% | Prices moved | #289 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 5 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
San Telmo: last 6
LWWLWD · 6 scored, 4 conceded
| 11 Oct | at Ciudad de Bolívar | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Almirante Brown | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Atletico Mitre | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs CA Estudiantes | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | at All Boys | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Los Andes | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: WLDDW
Defensores de Belgrano: last 6
LDLWWD · 6 scored, 8 conceded
| 11 Oct | vs Acassuso | 0–3 | L |
| 4 Oct | at Chaco For Ever | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Ferro Carril Oeste | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Central Norte | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sep | vs Deportivo Madryn | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Sep | vs Los Andes | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: DWLDL
Season stats
| San Telmo | Defensores de Belgrano | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.85 | Goals scored per game | 0.76 |
| 1.12 | Goals conceded per game | 0.97 |
| 1.06 | Scored per game at home | 0.76 |
| 0.65 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 36% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 30% |
| 33% | Both teams scored | 36% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 48% | Failed to score | 45% |
League matches only, 33 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Los Andes | 34 | +1 | 41 | DLLWL |
| 11 | Racing Cordoba | 34 | -10 | 40 | LWDDL |
| 12 | Atletico Mitre | 34 | -8 | 39 | WDWLL |
| 13 | Defensores de Belgrano | 34 | -7 | 38 | DLDLW |
| 14 | San Telmo | 35 | -12 | 38 | LDLWW |
| 15 | Central Norte | 34 | -8 | 37 | WDDDL |
| 16 | All Boys | 34 | -10 | 35 | DDLDD |
| 17 | Acassuso | 34 | -10 | 33 | DWLWW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: San Telmo won 2, Defensores de Belgrano 4, 0 draws; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 May 2026 | Defensores de Belgrano | 1–0 | San Telmo | Primera Nacional |
| 31 Jul 2025 | Defensores de Belgrano | 1–2 | San Telmo | Primera Nacional |
| 23 Feb 2025 | San Telmo | 0–3 | Defensores de Belgrano | Primera Nacional |
| 18 Aug 2024 | San Telmo | 1–2 | Defensores de Belgrano | Primera Nacional |
| 1 Apr 2024 | Defensores de Belgrano | 0–1 | San Telmo | Primera Nacional |
| 18 Jun 2023 | Defensores de Belgrano | 2–0 | San Telmo | Primera Nacional |
Match context
- Rest days
- San Telmo 7Defensores de Belgrano 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: San Telmo 1 · Defensores de Belgrano 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
