Güemes vs Almagro prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Almagro to win: 64%, about 2 in 3
Goals call2 goals or fewer 64% · bookies 64% · ✗ 3 goals
In short
Almagro are clear favourites at 64%, with Güemes on 11% and the draw on 25%. Güemes are 18th and Almagro 12th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Güemes won none and Almagro two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Güemes win or draw
- 36%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Almagro win or draw
- 89%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 62%
- 3+ goals
- 35%
- 4+ goals
- 16%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 32%
- No
- 68%
We expect about 0.5 goals from Güemes and 1.6 from Almagro. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (19%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 5. Next: 0–2 (16%), 0–0 (12%), 1–1 (10%), 0–3 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8% | 17% | 75% | Stats preview | #42 | |
| 2 | 11% | 22% | 67% | Prices moved | #141 | |
| 3 | 10% | 22% | 68% | Updated news and prices | #155 | |
| 4 | 11% | 24% | 64% | Updated news and prices | #217 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Güemes: last 6
LLLLLL · 1 scored, 12 conceded
| 11 Oct | at Patronato | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Colegiales | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Sep | at Quilmes | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Midland | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Atlanta | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Gimnasia Y Tiro | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: LLLDL
Almagro: last 6
WWLLDL · 8 scored, 10 conceded
| 10 Oct | vs Chacarita Juniors | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Oct | at San Martin S.J. | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Nueva Chicago | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Temperley | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Deportivo Maipu | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Gimnasia Jujuy | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: WLWLD
Season stats
| Güemes | Almagro | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.70 | Goals scored per game | 0.91 |
| 1.70 | Goals conceded per game | 1.18 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game at home | 1.06 |
| 0.65 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 39% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 52% | Both teams scored | 42% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 42% | Failed to score | 39% |
League matches only, 33 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | San Martin Tucuman | 35 | +2 | 46 | LWLWD |
| 11 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 35 | -6 | 46 | DWLLL |
| 12 | Quilmes | 35 | +2 | 42 | WLLDW |
| 13 | Almagro | 35 | -10 | 42 | DLWWL |
| 14 | Agropecuario | 34 | -11 | 40 | LWDLW |
| 15 | Patronato | 34 | -4 | 37 | LWLWD |
| 16 | Chacarita Juniors | 34 | -9 | 36 | WLWLW |
| 17 | Nueva Chicago | 34 | -9 | 36 | LLLWD |
| 18 | Güemes | 34 | -32 | 26 | WLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Güemes won 2, Almagro 2, 2 draws; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2026 | Almagro | 2–0 | Güemes | Primera Nacional |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Almagro | 0–1 | Güemes | Primera Nacional |
| 31 May 2025 | Güemes | 1–1 | Almagro | Primera Nacional |
| 16 Oct 2023 | Güemes | 1–0 | Almagro | Primera Nacional |
| 3 Jun 2023 | Almagro | 1–1 | Güemes | Primera Nacional |
| 19 Jun 2022 | Güemes | 1–2 | Almagro | Primera Nacional |
Match context
- Travel for Almagro
- 941 km
- Rest days
- Güemes 7Almagro 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Güemes 1 · Almagro 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 21°C · wind 10 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.94 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
