Deportivo Morón vs Mitre (Santiago del Estero) prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Deportivo Morón to win: 57%, about 3 in 5
In short
Deportivo Morón are favourites at 57%, with Mitre (Santiago del Estero) on 15% and the draw on 28%. Deportivo Morón are 2nd and Mitre (Santiago del Estero) 14th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Deportivo Morón won two and Mitre (Santiago del Estero) one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Deportivo Morón win or draw
- 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Mitre (Santiago del Estero) win or draw
- 43%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 57%
- 3+ goals
- 30%
- 4+ goals
- 13%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 32%
- No
- 68%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Deportivo Morón and 0.6 from Mitre (Santiago del Estero). (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (20%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 5. Next: 0–0 (15%), 2–0 (14%), 1–1 (11%), 0–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62% | 26% | 12% | Stats preview | #60 | |
| 2 | 62% | 26% | 13% | Updated news and prices | #94 | |
| 3 | 57% | 28% | 15% | Updated news and prices | #177 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Deportivo Morón: last 6
LWLLWW · 8 scored, 9 conceded
| 11 Oct | at CA Estudiantes | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs All Boys | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Los Andes | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Godoy Cruz | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Racing Cordoba | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Colon Santa Fe | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWWW
Mitre (Santiago del Estero): last 6
DWLLDD · 2 scored, 4 conceded
| 11 Oct | vs Colon Santa Fe | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | at San Miguel | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs San Telmo | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Acassuso | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Chaco For Ever | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Sep | at Ferro Carril Oeste | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: WLDLW
Season stats
| Deportivo Morón | Mitre (Santiago del Estero) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.55 | Goals scored per game | 0.88 |
| 1.03 | Goals conceded per game | 1.18 |
| 1.94 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.18 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 55% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| 55% | Both teams scored | 42% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 39% |
| 21% | Failed to score | 39% |
League matches only, 33 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 35 | +7 | 65 | LWDLW |
| 2 | Godoy Cruz | 34 | +16 | 60 | WDWDW |
| 3 | Deportivo Morón | 34 | +15 | 58 | LLWLL |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 35 | +20 | 57 | WDLWD |
| 5 | Colon Santa Fe | 35 | +16 | 57 | WDDWD |
| 6 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 35 | -1 | 51 | LWWWW |
| … | |||||
| 9 | Chaco For Ever | 35 | +0 | 43 | WLWDL |
| 10 | Los Andes | 34 | +1 | 41 | DLLWL |
| 11 | Racing Cordoba | 34 | -10 | 40 | LWDDL |
| 12 | Mitre (Santiago del Estero) | 34 | -8 | 39 | WDWLL |
| 13 | Defensores De Belgrano | 34 | -7 | 38 | DLDLW |
| 14 | San Telmo | 35 | -12 | 38 | LDLWW |
| 15 | Central Norte | 34 | -8 | 37 | WDDDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Deportivo Morón won 3, Mitre (Santiago del Estero) 1, 2 draws; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2026 | Mitre (Santiago del Estero) | 1–3 | Deportivo Morón | Primera Nacional |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Deportivo Morón | 3–0 | Mitre (Santiago del Estero) | Primera Nacional |
| 25 May 2025 | Mitre (Santiago del Estero) | 0–0 | Deportivo Morón | Primera Nacional |
| 22 Sep 2024 | Deportivo Morón | 1–2 | Mitre (Santiago del Estero) | Primera Nacional |
| 4 May 2024 | Mitre (Santiago del Estero) | 0–0 | Deportivo Morón | Primera Nacional |
| 18 Sep 2022 | Deportivo Morón | 1–0 | Mitre (Santiago del Estero) | Primera Nacional |
Match context
- Travel for Mitre (Santiago del Estero)
- 931 km
- Rest days
- Deportivo Morón 6Mitre (Santiago del Estero) 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Deportivo Morón 1 · Mitre (Santiago del Estero) 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 7 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.94 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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