San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Nashville to win: 51%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3 goals or fewer 57% · bookies 58% · ✓ 2 goals
In short
Nashville SC, league leaders on 66 points, can clinch the Supporters' Shield with a win and arrive on four straight victories with 13 goals scored. San Jose are unbeaten in five but carry six or seven absences. Nashville's congested schedule and long trip are the main counterweights, so our probabilities stay close to the market.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- San Jose Earthquakes win or draw
- 50%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Nashville SC win or draw
- 75%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 65%
- 4+ goals
- 43%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 64%
- No
- 36%
We expect about 1.4 goals from San Jose Earthquakes and 2.0 from Nashville SC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (7%), 0–2 (7%), 2–1 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 4+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 25% | 24% | 51% | 42% |
| Goals model | 24% | 26% | 50% | 29% |
| AI analysts | 25% | 26% | 49% | 34% |
| Our forecast | 25% | 24% | 50% | 43% |
- The Coach: San Jose miss six or seven players including regulars, while Nashville are close to full strength with Madrigal back and no clear sign of rotation. That supports a small lean toward the away win and goals, tempered only by Nashville's congested schedule.
- The Dressing Room: Nashville's dominance is clear, but three matches in eight days and a long trip plus some uncertainty in goal argue for nudging a few points toward the home side and draw. San Jose's unbeaten run and home form keep them competitive.
- The Sceptic: The market already prices Nashville near 50%, so we stay close, shifting a couple of points from away to home/draw for fatigue and travel. San Jose's injury list caps their ceiling, keeping the total near the market line.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because Nashville's elite form and Shield motivation are offset by their congested schedule and long trip, while San Jose's unbeaten run is limited by a long injury list.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
San Jose Earthquakes: last 6
DDWDWW · 11 scored, 7 conceded
| 15 Oct | at Real Salt Lake | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Colorado Rapids | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Portland Timbers | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Los Angeles FC | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Houston Dynamo | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Sep | at San Diego | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: WDWLL
Nashville SC: last 6
WWWWDL · 16 scored, 5 conceded
| 15 Oct | vs Sporting Kansas City | 4–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Austin | 4–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Toronto FC | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Chicago Fire | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Inter Miami | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Sep | at Toronto FC | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: WDLDW
Season stats
| San Jose Earthquakes | Nashville SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.76 | Goals scored per game | 2.17 |
| 1.41 | Goals conceded per game | 0.76 |
| 1.79 | Scored per game at home | 3.00 |
| 1.73 | Scored per game away | 1.29 |
| 55% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 66% | Both teams scored | 45% |
| 24% | Clean sheets | 48% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 2.21 | Yellow cards per game | 1.72 |
League matches only, 29 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | San Jose Earthquakes | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | +31 | 55 | LWDDL |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | +11 | 54 | WDWLW |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 31 | +12 | 51 | LLDWW |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | +7 | 48 | LDDDW |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | +2 | 48 | DDDDL |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | +15 | 46 | DWDLD |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | +2 | 43 | DDLWW |
| … | |||||
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | +43 | 70 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 31 | +20 | 55 | LWWWL |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 31 | +9 | 55 | WWWLL |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | +9 | 51 | WLLWW |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: San Jose Earthquakes won 0, Nashville SC 0, 4 draws; 2.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Apr 2024 | Nashville SC | 1–1 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 24 Sep 2023 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1–1 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 12 Jun 2022 | Nashville SC | 0–0 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 16 Apr 2022 | San Jose Earthquakes | 2–2 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1A. Gunn
Defenders
- 17Jack Jasinski
- 5D. Munie
- 4D. Romney
- 18R. Roberts
- 2J. Ricketts
Midfielders
- 34Beau Leroux
- 14R. Vieira
- 23E. Löwen
Forwards
- 19P. Judd
- 11T. Werner
Substitutes (9)
- 25M. Floriani
- 36E. Edwards
- 87Vítor Costa
- 20N. Fernandez
- 6I. Harkes
- 7O. Bouda
- 3P. Marie
- 21N. Buck
- 9L. Jovanović
Goalkeeper
- 99B. Schwake
Defenders
- 31A. Najar
- 4J. Palacios
- 3M. Woledzi
- 2D. Lovitz
Midfielders
- 8P. Yazbek
- 16M. Corcoran
- 7C. Espinoza
- 10H. Mukhtar
- 14S. Mohammed
Forward
- 9S. Surridge
Substitutes (9)
- 6B. Acosta
- 22J. Bauer
- 41W. Madrigal
- 5J. Maher
- 19A. Muyl
- 1J. Willis
- 20E. Tagseth
- 11E. Saad
- 27R. Baker-Whiting
Official team sheets, updated ET.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutN. AdimabuaHernia
- OutJ. A. Gonzalez MendozaInjury
- OutD. JohnsonLower-Body
Show 4 more
- OutD. JonesAchilles Tendon
- OutB. KikanovicLower-Body
- OutJ. SkahanLower-Body
- OutN. TsakirisUpper-Body
- OutF. CamaraLower-Body
- OutO. PresthusLower-Body
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Key facts
- Nashville lead the league with 66 points from 29 games and a +41 goal difference, the best 29-match start in MLS history; a win clinches the Supporters' Shield.[2][3][4]
- San Jose sit fourth in the West with 47 points from 29 games and are unbeaten in their last five matches.[2]
- Nashville have won four straight league matches, scoring 13 goals in those games.[2][4]
- San Jose's home record this season is six wins, three draws and five losses in 14 matches.[2]
- Nashville's away record is six wins, five draws and three losses in 14 matches.[2]
- Nashville face their third match in eight days plus one of their longest road trips of the season.[3][4]
- Sam Surridge has 17 goals and Hany Mukhtar 15 for Nashville this season.[2][4]
- Preston Judd is San Jose's main threat with 15 goals in all competitions.[2]
Sources
- starting11.com – San Jose Earthquakes Injuries & Suspensions: Latest Injury ...
- matchdayai.com – San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC: Six Injuries
- sixonefivesoccer.com – SixOneFive Soccer
- nashvillesc.com – Renasant Recap: Nashville Soccer Club Ties MLS Record for ...
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- PayPal Park, San Jose, California
- 18,000 seats · grass
- Travel for Nashville SC
- 3,112 km
- -2 h time zone
- Rest days
- San Jose Earthquakes 3Nashville SC 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: San Jose Earthquakes 2 · Nashville SC 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 22°C · wind 5 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Joseph Dickerson
- 4.2 yellow cards per game and 0.47 penalties per game over 15 games — close to the MLS average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- B. Arena
- San Jose Earthquakes, since Jan 2025
- B. Callaghan
- Nashville SC, since Jul 2024
- Goals in this league
- MLS average: 3.26 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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