Houston Dynamo FC vs FC Dallas prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Houston Dynamo to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 54% · ✓ 4 goals
In short
Third-placed FC Dallas visit Houston for the Texas Derby three points better off and in stronger form, but coach Eric Quill has signalled partial rotation after their midweek win over Seattle. Houston are without a win in five league games yet remain solid at home. Our probabilities stay close to the market, with a small tilt toward the draw and away side.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Houston Dynamo FC win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- FC Dallas win or draw
- 57%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Houston Dynamo FC and 1.3 from FC Dallas. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 1–2 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 44% | 27% | 29% | 54% |
| Goals model | 41% | 27% | 32% | 53% |
| AI analysts | 39% | 28% | 33% | 52% |
| Our forecast | 43% | 27% | 30% | 54% |
- The Coach: Availability is roughly balanced: Houston misses only squad players, while Dallas lose Farrington but regain Anderson Julio. Dallas's partial rotation after the midweek Seattle win trims their edge slightly, so the model numbers stay essentially intact with a marginal tilt toward Houston and the draw.
- The Dressing Room: Dallas's better form and head-to-head record pull toward the away side, but partial rotation after the Seattle win, Farrington's absence and the doubtful goalkeeper pull back, with Houston at home on similar rest. Houston's winless run justifies trimming the home side slightly below the model.
- The Sceptic: The market has drifted toward Dallas, consistent with their form and head-to-head edge, but Quill's confirmed partial rotation and the goalkeeper doubt offset that. Over 2.5 stays near the market level, trimmed slightly by Dallas's recent low-scoring wins.
Verdict: placeholder
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Houston Dynamo FC: last 6
DDLDLW · 9 scored, 11 conceded
| 15 Oct | at San Diego | 3–3 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Minnesota United FC | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Sporting Kansas City | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs FC Cincinnati | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | at San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Sep | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: LDWDW
FC Dallas: last 6
WLWDWW · 8 scored, 5 conceded
| 15 Oct | vs Seattle Sounders | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Charlotte | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Los Angeles FC | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Austin | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Portland Timbers | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Sep | at Minnesota United FC | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LWDLW
Season stats
| Houston Dynamo FC | FC Dallas | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.34 | Goals scored per game | 1.83 |
| 1.28 | Goals conceded per game | 1.55 |
| 1.21 | Scored per game at home | 1.86 |
| 1.47 | Scored per game away | 1.80 |
| 41% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 66% |
| 41% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 24% |
| 28% | Failed to score | 24% |
| 1.86 | Yellow cards per game | 2.31 |
League matches only, 29 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Houston Dynamo FC | FC Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | +31 | 55 | LWDDL |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | +11 | 54 | WDWLW |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 31 | +12 | 51 | LLDWW |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | +7 | 48 | LDDDW |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo FC | 31 | +2 | 48 | DDDDL |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | +15 | 46 | DWDLD |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | +2 | 43 | DDLWW |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | +1 | 42 | WDDDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Houston Dynamo FC won 2, FC Dallas 2, 2 draws; 3.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | FC Dallas | 4–3 | Houston Dynamo FC | Major League Soccer |
| 11 Feb 2026 | FC Dallas | 1–2 | Houston Dynamo FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| 18 May 2025 | FC Dallas | 0–2 | Houston Dynamo FC | Major League Soccer |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Houston Dynamo FC | 1–2 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 7 Feb 2025 | FC Dallas | 2–2 | Houston Dynamo FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| 19 May 2024 | Houston Dynamo FC | 1–1 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 31J. Bond
Defenders
- 11L. Ennali
- 5Lucas Halter
- 34A. Resch
- 21F. Negri
Midfielders
- 18D. Samassékou
- 6Artur
- 16H. Herrera
Forwards
- 19M. Bogusz
- 9L. Foster
- 20Guilherme
Substitutes (9)
- 17N. Markanich
- 14D. Holmes
- 26B. Gillingham
- 30A. Bouzat
- 22M. Arana
- 3Antônio Carlos
- 24A. Ibrahim
- 23D. McGuire
- 4M. Saracchi
Goalkeeper
- 42Daniel
Defenders
- 18S. Moore
- 25S. Ibeagha
- 32N. Norris
Midfielders
- 14H. Johansson
- 17Ramiro
- 12C. Cappis
- 77B. Kamungo
- 8P. Delgado
- 7D. Job
Forward
- 9P. Musa
Substitutes (9)
- 21J. Valiente
- 5L. Abubakar
- 6R. Binyamin
- 33C. Holstad
- 10S. Moreno
- 28Samuel Sarver
- 40J. Sirois
- 27Caleb Swann
- 3O. Urhoghide
Official team sheets, updated ET.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutFelipe AndradeInjury
- OutJ. MaurerConcussion
- OutL. FarringtonLower-Body
- OutGeovane JesusKnee
- OutA. A. Julio SantosLower-Body
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Key facts
- FC Dallas sit third in the Western Conference with 50 points from 29 games, three points clear of Houston.[4]
- Dallas clinched a playoff place by beating Seattle Sounders 1-0 on Wednesday, with Kaick scoring and Daniel De Sousa Britto keeping a clean sheet.[4]
- Dallas had earlier stretched an unbeaten run to six games with a 1-0 win over Los Angeles FC.[4]
- Coach Eric Quill said after the Seattle win he would need some fresh legs, so partial rotation is expected rather than a full overhaul.[4]
- Houston have not won in their last five league games, drawing three and losing two.[2]
- Houston are strong at home this season with eight wins, three draws and three defeats.[2]
- No players are suspended for either side, though Dallas's Nolan Norris is one yellow card from a ban.[2]
- The match is a Texas Derby, with kick-off on Sunday 18 October.[1]
Sources
- starting11.com – FC Dallas Injuries & Suspensions: Latest Injury List ...
- bigdsoccer.com – FC Dallas Injury Report vs. Houston Dynamo: Who Is In and Who ...
- newsnow.com – Houston Dynamo News | Latest News - NewsNow
- dfwsportswire.com – FC Dallas News Today - Latest FC Dallas Updates & Rumors
Match context
- Stadium
- Shell Energy Stadium, Houston, Texas
- 22,661 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Houston Dynamo FC 2FC Dallas 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Houston Dynamo FC 2 · FC Dallas 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 17°C · wind 8 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Victor Rivas
- 4.7 yellow cards per game and 0.41 penalties per game over 17 games — above the MLS average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- Ben Olsen
- Houston Dynamo FC, since Feb 2026
- Eric Quill
- FC Dallas, since Feb 2026
- Goals in this league
- MLS average: 3.27 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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