New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire FC prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (New England Revolution 39%)
Goals call3 goals or fewer 56% · bookies 57% · ✓ 1 goals
In short
New England host Chicago with both sides level on points near the top of the East and only five regular-season games left. Both carry several absences, and New England's recent home form and edge in this fixture tilt things slightly their way.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- New England Revolution win or draw
- 64%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Chicago Fire FC win or draw
- 61%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 66%
- 4+ goals
- 44%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 67%
- No
- 33%
We expect about 1.7 goals from New England Revolution and 1.7 from Chicago Fire FC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (6%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 4+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 38% | 26% | 37% | 43% |
| Goals model | 44% | 25% | 31% | 38% |
| AI analysts | 44% | 25% | 31% | 40% |
| Our forecast | 39% | 25% | 36% | 44% |
- The Coach: Availability is roughly symmetric: New England miss four squad players but keep their first-choice spine, while Chicago lack two creative pieces in Franco and Lod but field a full-strength attack. The expert leans slightly home on the H2H record and home advantage.
- The Dressing Room: The teams are nearly even in points, so home advantage and New England's strong record in this fixture are the main edges, tempered by the unresolved coaching reports. Goal-heavy recent form on both sides supports a modest bump to over 3.5.
- The Sceptic: The market view starts from de-vigged probabilities near 40/25/35 and nudges home slightly up, treating the reported New England coaching change as noise since the club's own guide does not confirm it. Confidence is low given medium data quality.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because the teams are nearly even on points and availability, with home advantage and New England's historical edge in this fixture offset by Chicago's underlying quality. The reported coaching change at New England is unconfirmed by the club and is treated as noise rather than an edge.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
New England Revolution: last 6
WLLWWW · 11 scored, 12 conceded
| 14 Oct | at FC Cincinnati | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–3 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Real Salt Lake | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Orlando City SC | 4–2 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Chicago Fire | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Sep | at New York City FC | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWDLW
Chicago Fire FC: last 6
LWWWLL · 8 scored, 10 conceded
| 15 Oct | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs New York City FC | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Oct | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Charlotte | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Nashville SC | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs New England Revolution | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: WLDDL
Season stats
| New England Revolution | Chicago Fire FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.66 | Goals scored per game | 1.79 |
| 1.41 | Goals conceded per game | 1.48 |
| 1.86 | Scored per game at home | 1.87 |
| 1.47 | Scored per game away | 1.71 |
| 72% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 76% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 72% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 24% |
| 24% | Failed to score | 7% |
| 1.79 | Yellow cards per game | 2.28 |
League matches only, 29 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | New England Revolution | Chicago Fire FC |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | +43 | 70 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 31 | +20 | 55 | LWWWL |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 31 | +9 | 55 | WWWLL |
| 4 | Chicago Fire FC | 31 | +9 | 51 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Charlotte | 31 | +7 | 47 | LDLWL |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | +12 | 46 | LDWWW |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | -7 | 42 | WWLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: New England Revolution won 2, Chicago Fire FC 2, 2 draws; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep 2026 | Chicago Fire FC | 1–2 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 18 Oct 2025 | New England Revolution | 2–2 | Chicago Fire FC | Major League Soccer |
| 7 Sep 2025 | Chicago Fire FC | 3–2 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 20 May 2025 | New England Revolution | 1–3 | Chicago Fire FC | US Open Cup |
| 5 May 2024 | Chicago Fire FC | 0–1 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 23 Mar 2024 | New England Revolution | 1–1 | Chicago Fire FC | Major League Soccer |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 30M. Turner
Defenders
- 12I. Feingold
- 22E. Kohler
- 66J. Wynder
- 23W. Sands
Midfielders
- 10Carles Gil
- 21B. Raines
- 8M. Polster
Forwards
- 25P. Miller
- 99D. Turgeman
- 41L. Langoni
Substitutes (9)
- 15C. Baker
- 4T. Beason
- 77D. Fagundez
- 16D. Gazdag
- 73JD Gunn
- 27W. Harris
- 65J. Siqueira
- 7G. Yow
- 14J. Yueill
Goalkeeper
- 1C. Brady
Defenders
- 2Leonardo Barroso
- 21A. Hanche-Olsen
- 4M. Mbokazi
- 15A. Gutman
Midfielders
- 6A. Salétros
- 42T. D'Avilla
- 7M. Haile-Selassie
Forwards
- 11P. Zinckernagel
- 9R. Lewandowski
- 19J. Bamba
Substitutes (9)
- 35S. Oregel
- 22M. Pineda
- 29D. Poręba
- 23A. Mekvabishvili
- 18J. Gómez
- 12P. Dithejane
- 24J. Dean
- 44J. Cohen
- 32N. Allen
Official team sheets, updated ET.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutL. CampanaHamstring
- OutM. FofanaLower-Body
- OutJ. HarrisonLower-Body
Show 1 more
- OutA. YusufMuscle
- Susp.J. ElliottSuspended
- OutA. FrancoKnee
- OutR. LodLower-Body
Show 1 more
- OutS. RogersLower-Body
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Key facts
- New England are third on 49 points from 29 games, one point ahead of fourth-placed Chicago on 48.[2][6]
- New England have won nine, drawn two and lost three at home this season, while Chicago's away record is five wins, five draws and four defeats.[2]
- New England beat FC Cincinnati 3-2 away on 14 October, with Dor Turgeman scoring twice, to clinch a playoff berth.[4][6]
- New England won 2-1 at Chicago on 13 September in the previous meeting this season.[2][6]
- Only five games remain in the regular season, so playoff seeding is at stake for both teams.[6]
- The match is at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on 17 October at 7:30 p.m. ET, with scattered showers forecast.[6]
Sources
- chicagofirefc.com – Lineup Notes | Chicago Fire FC at New England Revolution ...
- mlssoccer.com – MLSsoccer.com - The Official Site of Major League Soccer
- cbsnews.com – Revolution news and updates - CBS Boston
- sports.yahoo.com – New England Revolution News, Videos, Schedules, Roster, Stats ...
- nytimes.com – Chicago Fire - News, Schedule, Scores, Roster, and Stats ...
- revolutionsoccer.net – MATCHDAY GUIDE | Revs vs. Chicago Fire FC (October 17, 2026)
Match context
- Stadium
- Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
- 68,756 seats · artificial turf
- Travel for Chicago Fire FC
- 1,354 km
- +1 h time zone
- Rest days
- New England Revolution 3Chicago Fire FC 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: New England Revolution 2 · Chicago Fire FC 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 5°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Bensalah
- Coaches
- Marko Mitrović
- New England Revolution
- G. Berhalter
- Chicago Fire FC, since Oct 2024
- Goals in this league
- MLS average: 3.27 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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