Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Philadelphia Union to win: 66%, about 2 in 3
Goals call4+ goals 53% · bookies 53% · ✓ 4 goals
In short
Philadelphia Union host Charlotte FC at Subaru Park on a two-day turnaround after both played midweek. Union arrive on five straight MLS wins, while Charlotte lost at Columbus on 14 Oct. The sides sit 6th and 5th, one point apart, and our probabilities stay close to the market.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Philadelphia Union win or draw
- 84%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 81%
- Charlotte FC win or draw
- 34%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 89%
- 3+ goals
- 73%
- 4+ goals
- 53%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 66%
- No
- 34%
We expect about 2.6 goals from Philadelphia Union and 1.2 from Charlotte FC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 3–1 (8%), 2–0 (7%), 1–1 (7%), 3–0 (6%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 4+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 66% | 18% | 16% | 53% |
| Goals model | 49% | 23% | 28% | 47% |
| AI analysts | 55% | 22% | 23% | 51% |
| Our forecast | 66% | 19% | 16% | 53% |
- The Coach: Charlotte's availability is better than the injury list suggests, with Westwood, Byrne and Schnegg back in the announced XI, so the away side's midfield and defence are near full strength. Union are fully available per the sources and in elite form, supporting a small home boost.
- The Dressing Room: The teams are nearly equal on quality, but Philadelphia's five straight wins and long unbeaten league run outweigh Charlotte's midweek road loss and attacking absences. Both sides score and concede freely, keeping the over 3.5 near the league's high scoring baseline.
- The Sceptic: The market already prices in Union form and Charlotte's absences, so we stay close to it, shading home slightly down given Union's own two-day turnaround after the 15 Oct game at Chicago.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because Charlotte's returning players offset their injury list, while Union's five-win streak and home record justify the home favouritism; the only adjustment is a marginal draw bump for Union's short turnaround.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 66% | 19% | 15% | First analysis | daily seal | |
| 2 | 66% | 19% | 16% | Official lineups | #2 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Philadelphia Union: last 6
WWWWWW · 23 scored, 7 conceded
| 15 Oct | at Chicago Fire | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Orlando City SC | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Sporting Kansas City | 4–3 | W |
| 14 Sep | at San Diego | 5–0 | W |
| 9 Sep | vs FC Cincinnati | 5–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWWD
Charlotte FC: last 6
LWLWDW · 11 scored, 11 conceded
| 14 Oct | at Columbus Crew | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs FC Dallas | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Chicago Fire | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | at DC United | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at FC Cincinnati | 3–3 | D |
| 9 Sep | at CF Montreal | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LWDWW
Season stats
| Philadelphia Union | Charlotte FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.03 | Goals scored per game | 1.76 |
| 1.59 | Goals conceded per game | 1.48 |
| 1.79 | Scored per game at home | 1.93 |
| 2.27 | Scored per game away | 1.57 |
| 69% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 69% |
| 69% | Both teams scored | 69% |
| 21% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 21% |
| 2.41 | Yellow cards per game | 2.07 |
League matches only, 29 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Philadelphia Union | Charlotte FC |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter Miami | 31 | +20 | 55 | LWWWL |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 31 | +9 | 55 | WWWLL |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | +9 | 51 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Charlotte FC | 31 | +7 | 47 | LDLWL |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | +12 | 46 | LDWWW |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | -7 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 31 | -12 | 42 | DWDWL |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | -15 | 39 | WLLWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Philadelphia Union won 2, Charlotte FC 3, 1 draw; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | Charlotte FC | 2–1 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Charlotte FC | 2–0 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 14 Jun 2025 | Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | Charlotte FC | Major League Soccer |
| 28 Jul 2024 | Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | Charlotte FC | Leagues Cup |
| 22 Jun 2024 | Philadelphia Union | 0–2 | Charlotte FC | Major League Soccer |
| 25 May 2024 | Charlotte FC | 0–0 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 18A. Blake
Defenders
- 39F. Westfield
- 44Neil Pierre
- 26N. Harriel
- 27K. Wagner
Midfielders
- 6Cavan Sullivan
- 21D. Jean-Jacques
- 4J. Lukić
- 19I. Vassilev
Forwards
- 9B. Damiani
- 10M. Iloski
Substitutes (9)
- 14J. Rafanello
- 51M. Jakupovic
- 16B. Bender
- 11A. Bedoya
- 5J. Sery Larsen
- 76A. Rick
- 33Q. Sullivan
- 28A. Anello
- 23E. Alladoh
Goalkeeper
- 1K. Kahlina
Defenders
- 14N. Byrne
- 44M. Agyemang
- 22H. Kessler
- 23D. Schnegg
Midfielders
- 28D. Diani
- 8A. Westwood
- 16Pep Biel
Forwards
- 37R. Aloko
- 9I. Toklomati Giorno
- 10A. Saint-Maximin
Substitutes (9)
- 13B. Bronico
- 35Will Cleary
- 17L. de la Torre
- 21T. Miller
- 4A. Privett
- 3T. Ream
- 25Tyger Smalls
- 15H. Toffolo
- 11L. Abada
Official team sheets, updated ET.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutJ. BuenoHamstring
- OutN. BerchimasFoot
- OutA. DoucoureNot available
- OutA. GoodwinFoot
Show 1 more
- OutA. JohnShoulder
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Key facts
- Philadelphia Union are 6th with 45 points from 29 games; Charlotte FC are 5th with 46 points from the same number of matches.[1]
- Union have won their last five MLS matches, including 3-1 at Chicago Fire on 15 Oct and 2-1 against Real Salt Lake on 10 Oct.[1]
- Union are strong at home this season with 7 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, while Charlotte have 5 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses on the road.[1]
- Both teams played midweek, so neither side has a rest advantage for this fixture.[1]
- The match kicks off at 18:30 UTC on 17 Oct at Subaru Park, Chester, and streams on Apple TV.[1]
Sources
- goal.com – Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC: Where to watch, live stream, TV ...
- starting11.com – Charlotte Injuries & Suspensions: Latest Injury List | Starting 11
- leaguespy.com – Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte Preview: Injuries and Suspension ...
- si.com – Philadelphia Union News & Transfer Rumors - Sports Illustrated
- nytimes.com – Philadelphia Union - News, Schedule, Scores, Roster, and Stats - The ...
- charlottefootballclub.com – Charlotte FC | Major League Soccer
Match context
- Stadium
- Subaru Park, Chester, Pennsylvania
- 19,778 seats · grass
- Travel for Charlotte FC
- 705 km
- Rest days
- Philadelphia Union 2Charlotte FC 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Philadelphia Union 2 · Charlotte FC 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 22 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Jon Freemon
- 4.4 yellow cards per game and 0.24 penalties per game over 17 games — above the MLS average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- Ryan Richter
- Philadelphia Union, since Jul 2026
- D. Smith
- Charlotte FC, since Feb 2024
- Goals in this league
- MLS average: 3.26 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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