Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis CITY SC prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
St. Louis to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3 goals or fewer 55% · bookies 56% · ✗ 5 goals
In short
St. Louis CITY SC arrive second in the table and unbeaten in 18 league matches, having beaten Minnesota 4-2 in September. Minnesota sit 13th, winless in their last 11 home league games, and lose two defenders to suspension. Our model leans slightly more to the away side than the market.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Minnesota United FC win or draw
- 60%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- St. Louis CITY SC win or draw
- 64%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 66%
- 4+ goals
- 45%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 67%
- No
- 33%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Minnesota United FC and 1.8 from St. Louis CITY SC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 0–1 (6%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 4+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 39% | 24% | 37% | 44% |
| Goals model | 30% | 25% | 45% | 40% |
| AI analysts | 27% | 24% | 49% | 43% |
| Our forecast | 36% | 24% | 40% | 45% |
- The Coach: St. Louis are close to full strength while Minnesota definitively lose Duncan and Boxall to suspension; the reported injury list may partly overstate Minnesota's problems, so the away lean is tempered rather than extreme.
- The Dressing Room: Minnesota's suspended defenders, an 11-game home winless streak and a leaky defence face the league's hottest attack, which has scored in 18 straight league matches.
- The Sceptic: The market prices this almost evenly, but Minnesota's home winless run and defensive suspensions against an 18-match unbeaten side justify shading probability toward the away team.
Verdict: We move a few points from the market toward St. Louis because Minnesota's home winless streak, two defensive suspensions and the recent 4-2 head-to-head loss outweigh home advantage, while St. Louis bring an 18-match unbeaten run and a fully available core.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% | 25% | 39% | First analysis | daily seal | |
| 2 | 36% | 24% | 40% | Official lineups | #4 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Minnesota United FC: last 6
DDLLLL · 10 scored, 16 conceded
| 15 Oct | at Colorado Rapids | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | at Seattle Sounders | 1–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | at St. Louis City | 2–4 | L |
| 10 Sep | vs FC Dallas | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: DLLDL
St. Louis CITY SC: last 6
DWWWWW · 19 scored, 5 conceded
| 15 Oct | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 6–2 | W |
| 30 Sep | at New York Red Bulls | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Toronto FC | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Sep | at Colorado Rapids US Open Cup | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Minnesota United FC | 4–2 | W |
Last 5 away: WWDWD
Season stats
| Minnesota United FC | St. Louis CITY SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.52 | Goals scored per game | 1.86 |
| 1.83 | Goals conceded per game | 1.31 |
| 1.14 | Scored per game at home | 2.27 |
| 1.87 | Scored per game away | 1.43 |
| 66% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| 72% | Both teams scored | 69% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 1.97 | Yellow cards per game | 2.10 |
League matches only, 29 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Minnesota United FC | St. Louis CITY SC |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | +31 | 55 | LWDDL |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | +11 | 54 | WDWLW |
| 3 | St. Louis CITY SC | 31 | +12 | 51 | LLDWW |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | +7 | 48 | LDDDW |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | +2 | 48 | DDDDL |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | +15 | 46 | DWDLD |
| … | |||||
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | +0 | 39 | WWDLW |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | -4 | 37 | WDLDL |
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | -3 | 35 | DDDLD |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | -8 | 35 | DWDDL |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | -17 | 34 | WLLLD |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | -40 | 22 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Minnesota United FC won 5, St. Louis CITY SC 1, 0 draws; 4.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep 2026 | St. Louis CITY SC | 4–2 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 27 Jul 2025 | St. Louis CITY SC | 1–2 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 21 May 2025 | Minnesota United FC | 3–2 | St. Louis CITY SC | US Open Cup |
| 18 May 2025 | Minnesota United FC | 3–0 | St. Louis CITY SC | Major League Soccer |
| 20 Oct 2024 | Minnesota United FC | 4–1 | St. Louis CITY SC | Major League Soccer |
| 15 Sep 2024 | St. Louis CITY SC | 1–3 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 12D. Callender
Defenders
- 52Cherrion Valerius
- 28J. Díaz
- 23M. Duggan
Midfielders
- 21B. Hlongwane
- 25N. Triantis
- 20W. Trapp
- 13A. Markanich
- 18M. Gonzalez
Forwards
- 16A. Jackson
- 9K. Yeboah
Substitutes (9)
- 5N. Romero
- 94Kayne Rizvanovich
- 26J. Pereyra
- 11M. Malone
- 30O. Gene
- 3K. Duncan
- 8T. Chancalay
- 22Marcus Caldeira
- 15M. Boxall
Goalkeeper
- 1R. Bürki
Defenders
- 99J. Orozco
- 32T. Baumgartl
- 27F. Fall
Midfielders
- 59M. Joyner
- 21D. Polvara
- 28M. Perez
- 14T. Totland
- 77Jeong Sang-Bin
Forwards
- 11S. Becher
- 9Rafael Navarro
Substitutes (9)
- 20Rafael Santos
- 18C. Brunet
- 42D. Downs
- 24D. Edelman
- 19C. Holse
- 39B. Lundt
- 5L. MacNaughton
- 23A. Mățan
- 7T. Ostrák
Official team sheets, updated ET.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutA. SmirKnee
- OutP. StroudMuscle
- OutCelio PompeuKnee
- OutC. DurkinConcussion
- OutC. WallemHead
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Key facts
- Minnesota United FC are 13th with 31 points from 29 games, and have not won any of their last 11 home league matches.[2]
- St. Louis CITY SC are 2nd with 51 points from 29 games and are unbeaten in their last 18 league matches, though one source puts the run at 19.[2][5]
- Minnesota drew their last two league matches 2-2, at Colorado Rapids and at home to Houston Dynamo.[2]
- St. Louis won the September meeting 4-2 at home, with Rafael Navarro scoring twice including a penalty and Kelvin Yeboah converting a penalty for Minnesota.[2][3]
- Minnesota's Kyle Duncan and Michael Boxall are suspended for this match, weakening the home defence.[1][3]
- Kelvin Yeboah is Minnesota's top scorer with 15 goals; Rafael Navarro has 17 goals, third in the league scoring charts.[2][3]
- Minnesota's home record this season is two wins, seven draws and five losses, with lower scoring and conceding rates at home than away.[2]
Sources
- starting11.com – Minnesota United FC Injuries & Suspensions: Latest Injury ...
- us.soccerway.com – Minnesota United v St. Louis City 17/10/2026, Lineups ...
- mnufc.com – Minnesota United Let Early Lead Slip in St. Louis - mnufc.com
- si.com – Minnesota United FC News & Transfer Rumors - Sports Illustrated
- nytimes.com – St. Louis City - News, Schedule, Scores, Roster, and Stats ...
Match context
- Stadium
- Allianz Field, Saint Paul, Minnesota
- 19,954 seats · grass
- Travel for St. Louis CITY SC
- 742 km
- Rest days
- Minnesota United FC 2St. Louis CITY SC 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Minnesota United FC 2 · St. Louis CITY SC 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 13°C · wind 21 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Ramy Touchan
- 5.4 yellow cards per game and 0.11 penalties per game over 9 games — above the MLS average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- C. Knowles
- Minnesota United FC, since Feb 2024
- Y. Damet
- St. Louis CITY SC, since Feb 2026
- Goals in this league
- MLS average: 3.26 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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