Paris FC vs Stade Rennais prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Paris to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 58% · bookies 58% · ✓ 7 goals
In short
Paris FC are favourites at 45%, with Stade Rennais on 28% and the draw on 27%. Paris FC are 6th and Stade Rennais 4th in Ligue 1. In their last five league games, Paris FC won three and Stade Rennais four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Paris FC win or draw
- 72%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Stade Rennais win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Paris FC and 1.3 from Stade Rennais. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 2–0 (7%), 1–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% | 26% | 28% | Stats preview | #32 | |
| 2 | 42% | 28% | 30% | Updated news and prices | #80 | |
| 3 | 45% | 27% | 28% | Official lineups | #138 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Paris FC: last 6
LWDWWD · 8 scored, 4 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Lorient | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Strasbourg | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Lyon | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Marseille | 3–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | vs Nice | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | at Estac Troyes | 0–0 | D |
Last 3 at home: WDW
Stade Rennais: last 6
WWLDWW · 9 scored, 7 conceded
| 15 Oct | vs OFI UEFA Europa League | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Auxerre | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Lyon | 0–4 | L |
| 16 Sep | at Sturm Graz UEFA Europa League | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sep | vs Marseille | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Angers | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LDWLW
Season stats
| Paris FC | Stade Rennais | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 0.67 | Goals conceded per game | 1.67 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game at home | 2.50 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| 33% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 17% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Monaco | 8 | +4 | 15 | DLDWD |
| 3 | Lyon | 7 | +8 | 14 | WLWDW |
| 4 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | +5 | 14 | WWWWL |
| 5 | Paris FC | 8 | +4 | 14 | LWLWD |
| 6 | Lens | 8 | +4 | 13 | WWWLD |
| 7 | Stade Rennais | 7 | +1 | 13 | LWLWW |
| 8 | Lorient | 7 | +1 | 11 | WWLDW |
| 9 | Nice | 8 | -2 | 11 | WLWWL |
| 10 | Marseille | 7 | +4 | 9 | WWLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Paris FC won 0, Stade Rennais 2, 0 draws; 2.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Stade Rennais | 2–1 | Paris FC | Ligue 1 |
| 7 Nov 2025 | Paris FC | 0–1 | Stade Rennais | Ligue 1 |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutJ. IkoneThigh
- OutN. SanguiMuscle
No absences reported.
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Stade Rennais
- 307 km
- Rest days
- Paris FC 7Stade Rennais 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Paris FC 1 · Stade Rennais 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 13°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Bastein Dechepy
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 2.93 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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