Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Le Havre AC to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 55% · ✓ 4 goals
In short
Le Havre AC are slight favourites at 41%, with AJ Auxerre on 31% and the draw on 28%. Le Havre AC are 18th and AJ Auxerre 16th in Ligue 1. In their last five league games, Le Havre AC won none and AJ Auxerre two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Le Havre AC win or draw
- 69%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- AJ Auxerre win or draw
- 59%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Le Havre AC and 1.3 from AJ Auxerre. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 28% | 30% | Stats preview | #33 | |
| 2 | 40% | 28% | 31% | Updated news and prices | #97 | |
| 3 | 41% | 28% | 31% | Official lineups | #136 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Le Havre AC: last 6
LLDLDL · 4 scored, 8 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Lille | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Toulouse | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Angers | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Stade Brestois 29 | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | at Lyon | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | vs Monaco | 0–1 | L |
Last 4 at home: DLLL
AJ Auxerre: last 6
LWWLLL · 8 scored, 16 conceded
| 11 Oct | at Rennes | 1–4 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Stade Brestois 29 | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Nice | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sep | at Lyon | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Angers | 1–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | at Lens | 2–5 | L |
Last 3 away: LLL
Season stats
| Le Havre AC | AJ Auxerre | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.67 | Goals scored per game | 1.33 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 2.67 |
| 0.33 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 33% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 83% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Marseille | 7 | +4 | 9 | WWLLL |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | +2 | 9 | LDWLL |
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | +1 | 9 | WDWDL |
| 13 | AJ Auxerre | 7 | -6 | 9 | WLWWL |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | -3 | 7 | LLLDW |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | -6 | 7 | LLWDL |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | -5 | 6 | LLWDD |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | -11 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Le Havre AC | 7 | -6 | 2 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Le Havre AC won 4, AJ Auxerre 1, 1 draw; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | Le Havre AC | 1–1 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 26 Oct 2025 | AJ Auxerre | 0–1 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 |
| 4 May 2025 | AJ Auxerre | 1–2 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 |
| 1 Sep 2024 | Le Havre AC | 3–1 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 7 May 2022 | Le Havre AC | 1–2 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 2 |
| 21 Dec 2021 | AJ Auxerre | 2–3 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 2 |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.A. SekoSuspended
- OutE. JelertThigh
- OutF. MambimbiAchilles Tendon
Show 4 more
- OutL. Mpasi-NzauAchilles Tendon
- OutT. PembeleMuscle
- OutA. ToureKnee
- OutS. ZagadouKnee
- OutA. DiousseKnee
- OutS. FofanaGroin
- OutR. Labeau LascaryInjury
Show 4 more
- OutR. MandengueMuscle
- OutB. OkohKnee
- OutM. SenayaHamstring
- OutT. SiweMuscle
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for AJ Auxerre
- 316 km
- Rest days
- Le Havre AC 8AJ Auxerre 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Le Havre AC 1 · AJ Auxerre 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 12 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Eric Wattellier
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 2.93 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
