Lorient vs AS Monaco prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
AS Monaco to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 50% · bookies 51% · ✓ 1 goals
In short
AS Monaco are favourites at 46%, with Lorient on 26% and the draw on 28%. Lorient are 11th and AS Monaco 3rd in Ligue 1. In their last five league games, Lorient won two and AS Monaco three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Lorient win or draw
- 54%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- AS Monaco win or draw
- 74%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Lorient and 1.5 from AS Monaco. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 0–2 (8%), 1–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% | 28% | 46% | Stats preview | #34 | |
| 2 | 26% | 28% | 45% | Updated news and prices | #98 | |
| 3 | 26% | 28% | 46% | Official lineups | #137 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Lorient: last 6
WLDWLD · 6 scored, 6 conceded
| 10 Oct | vs Paris FC | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Le Mans | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sep | at Lens | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Estac Troyes | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | at Nice | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: WDLDW
AS Monaco: last 6
WDWDWW · 11 scored, 6 conceded
| 15 Oct | at CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa Conference League | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Lens | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Strasbourg | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sep | at Paris Saint Germain | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | vs Marseille | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WDWWW
Season stats
| Lorient | AS Monaco | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.67 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 0.83 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Ligue 1 table
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Lorient won 2, AS Monaco 1, 3 draws; 4.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2026 | AS Monaco | 1–3 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Lorient | 3–1 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 17 Mar 2024 | AS Monaco | 2–2 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 17 Sep 2023 | Lorient | 2–2 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 16 Apr 2023 | AS Monaco | 3–1 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 11 Jan 2023 | Lorient | 2–2 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutN. MbambaMuscle
- Susp.P. BrunnerSuspended
- OutE. DierMuscle
- OutS. IdumboGroin
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for AS Monaco
- 947 km
- Rest days
- Lorient 7AS Monaco 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Lorient 1 · AS Monaco 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 23 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Marc Bollengier
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 2.93 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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