Lyon vs Nice prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Lyon to win: 51%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 58% · bookies 57% · ✓ 3 goals
In short
Lyon are favourites at 51%, with Nice on 24% and the draw on 25%. Lyon are 6th and Nice 13th in Ligue 1. In their last five league games, Lyon won two and Nice two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Lyon win or draw
- 76%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Nice win or draw
- 49%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 57%
- 4+ goals
- 35%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Lyon and 1.2 from Nice. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 1–2 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% | 24% | 24% | Stats preview | #64 | |
| 2 | 50% | 24% | 25% | Updated news and prices | #108 | |
| 3 | 51% | 25% | 24% | Official lineups | #178 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Lyon: last 6
WLWWDW · 13 scored, 6 conceded
| 15 Oct | vs Crystal Palace UEFA Europa League | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Oct | at Lens | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Rennes | 4–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | at Anderlecht UEFA Europa League | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Paris FC | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Sep | vs Auxerre | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWDL
Nice: last 6
WWLDLD · 5 scored, 7 conceded
| 11 Oct | vs Strasbourg | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Lille | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Auxerre | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Le Mans | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | at Paris FC | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs Lorient | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: LLLWD
Season stats
| Lyon | Nice | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.83 | Goals scored per game | 0.83 |
| 0.67 | Goals conceded per game | 1.17 |
| 2.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Ligue 1 table
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Lyon won 4, Nice 1, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2026 | Lyon | 2–0 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Nice | 3–2 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 9 Mar 2025 | Nice | 0–2 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 1 Dec 2024 | Lyon | 4–1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 16 Feb 2024 | Lyon | 1–0 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 27 Aug 2023 | Nice | 0–0 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutL. OpendaLeg
- OutM. OuedraogoKnee
- OutN. TagliaficoMuscle
- OutA. AbdiMuscle
- OutL. AbergelKnee
- OutM. BombitoLeg
Show 1 more
- OutA. MendyKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Nice
- 297 km
- Rest days
- Lyon 3Nice 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Lyon 2 · Nice 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 6 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Francois Letexier
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 3.05 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
