Le Mans vs Toulouse prediction

Probabilities

"Market" is the bookmaker's price with the margin removed (what that means). Our numbers are probabilities, not tips.

In short

A relegation six-pointer between two teams on 6 points, separated only by goal difference. Le Mans are unbeaten at home for over a year but missing Adil Bourabaa long-term and yet to keep a clean sheet; Toulouse are unbeaten away but hunting their first away win. Availability and home form roughly balance out.

Key facts

• Both sides sit on 6 points, 14th and 15th, separated only by goal difference in a direct relegation-zone pairing.[5][6]
• Le Mans lost 3-1 at PSG in their last match after a three-match unbeaten run, with one win in their last six.[2][3][6]
• Le Mans are unbeaten at home in the league for over a year, with no home defeat since September 2025.[3]
• Le Mans have yet to keep a clean sheet in Ligue 1 this season.[6]
• Le Mans have dropped 6 points after leading in the second half and lead the league in penalties conceded with 3.[3]
• Toulouse drew 2-2 at Monaco last time out and are unbeaten away this season, though winless in their last three on the road.[2][3][6]
• Toulouse rank third in the league for touches in the opposition box but fifth for big chances missed with 14.[3]
• Toulouse travelled with a full squad.[1][8]

Still unclear

• Whether Rasmus Nicolaisen plays (knock; sources disagree - out per footix, in XI per maxifoot)
• Whether Abu Francis (hamstring) makes the squad
• Whether Habib Diallo starts or stays on the bench for Le Mans
• Whether Donnum returns straight into the Toulouse XI after suspension

Sources

1. news.maxifoot.fr – L1 : Le Mans-Toulouse, les compos probables - Football - MAXIFOOT (2026-10-16)
2. sports.yahoo.com – PREVIEW | Le Mans vs Toulouse: team news, lineups ... (2026-10-16)
3. sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Le Mans vs Toulouse - prediction, team news, lineups (2026-10-16)
4. getfootballnewsfrance.com – Le Mans predicted XI v Toulouse: Adil Bouarabaa out, Djibril ... (2026-10-16)
5. footix.fr – Compositions probables : Le Mans VS Toulouse | 16/10/2026 (2026-10-16)
6. befoot.net – Le Mans - Toulouse : compositions probables, chaîne TV et heure (16 ... (2026-10-16)
7. livefoot.fr – Mercato MUC 72, Transferts du MUC 72, L'actu foot de Le Mans Football Club (2026-10-16)
8. live-mercato.com – Live Mercato - Le Mans : actualité football et transferts en direct (2026-10-16)
9. toulousefc.com – Le site officiel du TéFéCé - Toulouse FC (2026-10-16)
10. ladepeche.fr – Football : Actualités, calendriers et résultats de football (2026-10-16)

Expected lineups

Expected lineups as reported by the sources above; "A / B" means sources disagree. Official lineups usually arrive about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Off the pitch

• Le Mans' president publicly defended new investor Idrissa Gana Gueye amid fan calls for a boycott linked to a 2022 shirt controversy.[7]
• Sidibé confirmed at a press conference he had contacts with Marseille last summer, a remark likely to draw local attention.[7][8]

Match context

Rest days

6 / 6

Away travel

~498 km

Local kick-off

Fri 20:45

Weather (forecast)

14°C · 12 km/h · rain

League goals per match

2.91

Rest days: Le Mans / Toulouse, since each team's last match.

Form and head-to-head

Head-to-head

• 2010-01-30: Le Mans 1–3 Toulouse
• 2009-09-20: Toulouse 2–0 Le Mans
• 2009-02-07: Toulouse 2–0 Le Mans
• 2008-09-13: Le Mans 1–2 Toulouse
• 2008-03-22: Toulouse 1–1 Le Mans

• Toulouse lead the overall record with 9 wins to Le Mans' 8 from 24 meetings.[2]
• Toulouse have won the last four league meetings, while Le Mans' last home win over them came in December 2006.[3]

How we got to these numbers

Goals model expects 1.98–1.57 goals (Le Mans–Toulouse).

• Squad & availability: Toulouse travel with essentially a full squad while Le Mans are without Adil Bourabaa long-term and have two further doubts, so availability tilts value toward the away side, partly offset by Sidibé's return and the home unbeaten run.
• Form, tactics & morale: Toulouse are unbeaten away and rank third for touches in the opposition box, but they lack cutting edge with 14 big chances missed, while Le Mans concede constantly and have dropped points from winning positions - pointing to a tight match with goals at both ends.
• Market sceptic: Only small deviations from the market: Le Mans' twelve-month home unbeaten record in a relegation six-pointer warrants nudging home/draw up slightly, and both sides' leaky defences justify holding over 2.5 a touch above the market.

Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market: Toulouse's away record and squad availability support their favourite status, while Le Mans' year-long home unbeaten run justifies a small shift from home/away toward the draw, given both sides' defensive frailty and Le Mans' late-game collapses.

The final number starts from the market and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology

Prediction history

This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.