Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Real Madrid to win: 80%, about 4 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 69% · bookies 69% · ✓ 5 goals
In short
Real Madrid are clear favourites at 80%, with Sevilla on 7% and the draw on 13%. Real Madrid are 4th and Sevilla 6th in LaLiga. In their last five league games, Real Madrid won three and Sevilla two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Real Madrid win or draw
- 93%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 87%
- Sevilla win or draw
- 20%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 87%
- 3+ goals
- 69%
- 4+ goals
- 47%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 2.8 goals from Real Madrid and 0.8 from Sevilla. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 3–0 (10%), 2–1 (8%), 1–0 (8%), 3–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 80% | 13% | 8% | Stats preview | #47 | |
| 2 | 80% | 13% | 7% | Updated news and prices | #127 | |
| 3 | 80% | 13% | 7% | Official lineups | #180 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Real Madrid: last 6
WWLWWW · 15 scored, 9 conceded
| 14 Oct | at AS Roma UEFA Champions League | 4–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Villarreal | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Atletico Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | at Elche | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Rayo Vallecano | 4–1 | W |
| 8 Sep | vs Inter UEFA Champions League | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
Sevilla: last 6
DLWWDL · 8 scored, 10 conceded
| 12 Oct | at Levante | 3–3 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Barcelona | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | at Deportivo La Coruna | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Valencia | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Espanyol | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | vs Atletico Madrid | 1–3 | L |
Last 4 away: DWDW
Season stats
| Real Madrid | Sevilla | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.38 | Goals scored per game | 1.62 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 3.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | +30 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 10 | +12 | 25 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | +14 | 21 | WWLWW |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | +2 | 19 | LWDWW |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | +0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | -2 | 14 | LDLWW |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | +3 | 12 | DLLDL |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | +3 | 12 | WLDDD |
| 9 | Villarreal | 10 | +1 | 12 | WDLWW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Real Madrid won 5, Sevilla 0, 1 draw; 2.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | Sevilla | 0–1 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Real Madrid | 2–0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 18 May 2025 | Sevilla | 0–2 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 22 Dec 2024 | Real Madrid | 4–2 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 25 Feb 2024 | Real Madrid | 1–0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 21 Oct 2023 | Sevilla | 1–1 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.Vinicius JuniorSuspended
- OutR. AsencioBroken Leg
- OutF. MendyHip
Show 1 more
- OutRodrygoKnee
- Susp.I. RomeroSuspended
- OutJ. GuridiMuscle
- OutG. KochorashviliCalf
Show 3 more
- OutMarcaoMuscle
- OutI. MunozInjury
- OutM. SierraShoulder
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Sevilla
- 390 km
- Rest days
- Real Madrid 4Sevilla 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Real Madrid 2 · Sevilla 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 14 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Mateo Busquets Ferrer
- Goals in this league
- LaLiga average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
