Celta Vigo vs Alavés prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Celta Vigo to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 64% · bookies 63% · ✗ 3 goals
In short
Celta Vigo are slight favourites at 40%, with Alavés on 29% and the draw on 31%. Celta Vigo are 12th and Alavés 7th in LaLiga. In their last five league games, Celta Vigo won one and Alavés one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Celta Vigo win or draw
- 71%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Alavés win or draw
- 60%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 63%
- 3+ goals
- 36%
- 4+ goals
- 17%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 42%
- No
- 58%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Celta Vigo and 1.0 from Alavés. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%), 0–1 (11%), 2–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 31% | 27% | Stats preview | #28 | |
| 2 | 43% | 30% | 27% | Updated news and prices | #79 | |
| 3 | 40% | 30% | 29% | Official lineups | #122 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Celta Vigo: last 6
LDWLDD · 8 scored, 5 conceded
| 15 Oct | vs Juventus UEFA Europa League | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Elche | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Racing Santander | 5–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | at Omonia Nicosia UEFA Europa League | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Malaga | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Sep | at Getafe | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: LWDLL
Alavés: last 6
LDLLWW · 8 scored, 7 conceded
| 10 Oct | vs Atletico Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Athletic Club | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Valencia | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Racing Santander | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Osasuna | 5–2 | W |
| 28 Aug | vs Villarreal | 1–0 | W |
Last 3 away: DLD
Season stats
| Celta Vigo | Alavés | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 0.75 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 0.25 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 25% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | +2 | 19 | LWDWW |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | +0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | -2 | 14 | LDLWW |
| 7 | Alavés | 10 | +3 | 12 | DLLDL |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | +3 | 12 | WLDDD |
| 9 | Villarreal | 10 | +1 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 10 | Celta Vigo | 9 | +3 | 11 | WDWDD |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | +0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Osasuna | 9 | -8 | 11 | WLDLL |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | -11 | 11 | WLDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Celta Vigo won 2, Alavés 2, 2 draws; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | Celta Vigo | 3–4 | Alavés | La Liga |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Alavés | 0–1 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 27 Jan 2025 | Alavés | 1–1 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 16 Aug 2024 | Celta Vigo | 2–1 | Alavés | La Liga |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Alavés | 3–0 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 28 Sep 2023 | Celta Vigo | 1–1 | Alavés | La Liga |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutP. DuranCalf
- OutJ. El AbdellaouiKnee
- OutB. IglesiasCalf
Show 2 more
- OutM. RomanKnee
- OutC. StarfeltMuscle
- Susp.F. GarcesSuspended
- Susp.A. PerezSuspended
- OutM. RodriguezAnkle
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Alavés
- 500 km
- Rest days
- Celta Vigo 2Alavés 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Celta Vigo 2 · Alavés 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 22°C · wind 14 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Jose Luis Munuera Montero
- Goals in this league
- LaLiga average: 3.02 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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