Deportivo vs Levante prediction

Probabilities

"Market" is the bookmaker's price with the margin removed (what that means). Our numbers are probabilities, not tips.

In short

Deportivo host Levante at Riazor with both sides in poor form. Deportivo are winless in four but unbeaten at home in form terms, while Levante have no away win and one of the league's worst defences. Availability problems affect both teams, with Deportivo missing Amatucci through suspension.

Key facts

• Deportivo sit 8th with 10 points from 8 games but are winless in their last four league matches, including a 3-2 defeat at Real Sociedad after trailing 3-0.[4][5]
• Levante are 17th with 6 points from 7 games and have not won away all season, drawing 3-3 with Sevilla in their last outing.[1][4][5]
• Deportivo have conceded in eight consecutive matches, a run described as their worst clean-sheet drought in 60 years.[5][7]
• Levante have conceded 15 goals in 7 matches, among the worst defensive records in La Liga.[1][4][5]
• Ivan Romero and Roger Brugue are in good scoring form for Levante with three goals each.[4]
• Deportivo manager Antonio Hidalgo must rebuild his midfield after Amatucci's suspension, with few changes otherwise expected to the side that lost at Real Sociedad.[1][4]
• Levante are expected to keep largely the same block that drew with Sevilla.[1][4]
• Levante have only two wins in nine top-flight visits to Riazor.[8]

Still unclear

• Whether Adama Traore is fit enough to start for Deportivo after the international break
• Whether Deportivo rotate after the 3-2 loss at Real Sociedad on 11 Oct - sources suggest few surprises/no changes expected
• Whether Levante keep the same XI that drew 3-3 with Sevilla - sources indicate the same block is expected

Sources

1. estadiodeportivo.com – Deportivo de La Coruña - Levante: alineaciones probables, horario y ... (2026-10-16)
2. marca.com – Deportivo de la Coruña - Últimas noticias | MARCA (2026-10-16)
3. nutmegly.com – Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante Lineups, Injuries & Team News ... (2026-10-16)
4. sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante - prediction, team ... (2026-10-16)
5. sports.yahoo.com – PREVIEW | Deportivo vs Levante: team news, lineups ... (2026-10-16)
6. rcdeportivo.es – Real Club Deportivo De A Coruña (2026-10-16)
7. as.com – Deportivo - Todas las noticias - AS.com (2026-10-16)
8. lasprovincias.es – Noticias del Levante UD | Las Provincias (2026-10-16)
9. mundolevanteud.com – Mundo Levante UD (2026-10-16)

Expected lineups

Expected lineups as reported by the sources above; "A / B" means sources disagree. Official lineups usually arrive about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Off the pitch

• Deportivo face a congested stretch with 11 days without rest after the international break.[7]
• Levante escaped a serious sanction over incidents around the Sevilla match, with police filing five reports.[8][9]
• Levante defender Dela's contract renewal is reportedly stalling.[8][9]

Match context

Rest days

5 / 4

Away travel

~9,219 km

Time-zone shift

-8 h

Local kick-off

Fri 13:00

Weather (forecast)

22°C · 39 km/h

Referee

Orellana Cid

League goals per match

3.09

Rest days: Deportivo / Levante, since each team's last match.

Form and head-to-head

Head-to-head

• 2025-01-25: Deportivo 1–2 Levante
• 2024-10-24: Levante 2–1 Deportivo
• 2018-01-27: Deportivo 2–2 Levante
• 2017-08-26: Levante 2–2 Deportivo
• 2016-03-19: Deportivo 2–1 Levante

• Sources conflict on the overall head-to-head: one has Deportivo leading 16-15 with 5 draws in 36 meetings, another counts 43 meetings with Deportivo winning 20 to 16.[4][5]
• Levante won the last two league meetings, and Deportivo have not beaten Levante since March 2016, per one source.[4]

How we got to these numbers

Goals model expects 2.06–1.30 goals (Deportivo–Levante).

• Squad & availability: Deportivo's availability is worse in quality terms, with Amatucci's suspension forcing a midfield rebuild on top of three long-term absences, trimming the home win probability. Levante's three absences hit a leaky defence, keeping the away win low and the over high given both sides' scoring form.
• Form, tactics & morale: Both teams' stalemate tendencies and defensive frailty point to a slightly higher draw probability and a strong over, since Deportivo concede every week and Levante concede two or more regularly in a high-scoring league environment.
• Market sceptic: Levante's winless away run, worst-in-class defence and travel burden justify a small nudge toward the home win, while Deportivo's own winless streak and midfield disruption keep the model's higher home number in check; the over is supported by two porous defences.

Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because Deportivo's home edge and Levante's defensive and away problems are largely offset by Deportivo's winless run, eight games without a clean sheet and the loss of Amatucci. The over remains at 52% given both teams' leaky defences and scoring form.

The final number starts from the market and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology

Prediction history

This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.