Málaga vs Real Sociedad prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Real Sociedad to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 59% · bookies 59% · ✓ 7 goals
In short
Real Sociedad are slight favourites at 44%, with Málaga on 29% and the draw on 27%. Málaga are 20th and Real Sociedad 6th in LaLiga. In their last five league games, Málaga won none and Real Sociedad three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Málaga win or draw
- 56%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Real Sociedad win or draw
- 71%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 59%
- 4+ goals
- 37%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Málaga and 1.7 from Real Sociedad. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 2–1 (7%), 0–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% | 27% | 43% | Stats preview | #37 | |
| 2 | 27% | 28% | 45% | Updated news and prices | #78 | |
| 3 | 29% | 27% | 44% | Official lineups | #158 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Málaga: last 6
DLLDDL · 3 scored, 10 conceded
| 9 Oct | vs Espanyol | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Getafe | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Sep | vs Villarreal | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Celta Vigo | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Levante | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | at Real Madrid | 0–4 | L |
Last 4 at home: DLDD
Real Sociedad: last 6
DWWLLW · 11 scored, 12 conceded
| 15 Oct | at Union St. Gilloise UEFA Europa League | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Deportivo La Coruna | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Valencia | 3–2 | W |
| 17 Sep | vs Bournemouth UEFA Europa League | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Atletico Madrid | 0–3 | L |
| 7 Sep | at Elche | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 away: DWWLL
Season stats
| Málaga | Real Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 1.62 | Goals conceded per game | 1.88 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 0.25 | Scored per game away | 1.75 |
| 25% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 10 | +12 | 25 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | +14 | 21 | WWLWW |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | +2 | 19 | LWDWW |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | +0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | -2 | 14 | LDLWW |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | +3 | 12 | DLLDL |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | +3 | 12 | WLDDD |
| … | |||||
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | -10 | 9 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | -2 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | -10 | 6 | LDDLW |
| 20 | Málaga | 10 | -12 | 5 | DLDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Málaga won 2, Real Sociedad 2, 2 draws; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2024 | Málaga | 0–1 | Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey |
| 22 Apr 2018 | Málaga | 2–0 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 10 Dec 2017 | Real Sociedad | 0–2 | Málaga | La Liga |
| 14 May 2017 | Real Sociedad | 2–2 | Málaga | La Liga |
| 16 Jan 2017 | Málaga | 0–2 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 27 Feb 2016 | Real Sociedad | 1–1 | Málaga | La Liga |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutJ. CruzMuscle
- OutJ. LobeteKnee
- OutD. MurilloKnee
Show 1 more
- OutA. OchoaKnee
- Susp.P. MarinSuspended
- OutJ. AramburuLeg
- OutL. BeitiaAnkle
Show 2 more
- OutY. HerreraCalf
- OutA. OdriozolaKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Real Sociedad
- 1,527 km
- +1 h time zone
- Rest days
- Málaga 8Real Sociedad 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Málaga 1 · Real Sociedad 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 22°C · wind 5 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Luis Bestard Servera
- Goals in this league
- LaLiga average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
