Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Rayo Vallecano 36%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 67% · bookies 67% · ✓ 2 goals
In short
Rayo Vallecano are slight favourites at 36%, with Getafe on 31% and the draw on 33%. Getafe are 15th and Rayo Vallecano 14th in LaLiga. In their last five league games, Getafe won one and Rayo Vallecano two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Getafe win or draw
- 64%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 67%
- Rayo Vallecano win or draw
- 69%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 60%
- 3+ goals
- 33%
- 4+ goals
- 14%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 40%
- No
- 60%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Getafe and 1.1 from Rayo Vallecano. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (13%), 1–0 (13%), 0–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% | 33% | 36% | Stats preview | #206 | |
| 2 | 30% | 34% | 36% | Updated news and prices | #261 | |
| 3 | 31% | 33% | 36% | Prices moved | #271 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Getafe: last 6
DLWLDD · 4 scored, 7 conceded
| 15 Oct | at Universitatea Craiova UEFA Europa Conference League | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Barcelona | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Malaga | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Sep | at Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Deportivo La Coruna | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Sep | vs Celta Vigo | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: WDDWW
Rayo Vallecano: last 6
DWLWLD · 10 scored, 14 conceded
| 19 Sep | at Osasuna | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Real Madrid | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Racing Santander | 3–2 | W |
| 31 Aug | at Barcelona | 2–5 | L |
| 20 Aug | vs Alaves | 1–1 | D |
Last 4 away: DLLL
Season stats
| Getafe | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.57 |
| 1.25 | Goals conceded per game | 2.29 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 25% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 71% |
| 25% | Both teams scored | 100% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 8 and 7 games.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | -11 | 11 | WLDLL |
| 14 | Levante | 9 | -2 | 10 | WDDLL |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | -3 | 10 | WDDWL |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | -8 | 9 | LDDWL |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | -10 | 9 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | -2 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | -10 | 6 | LDDLW |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | -12 | 5 | DLDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Getafe won 0, Rayo Vallecano 3, 3 draws; 1.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Getafe | 0–2 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2 Jan 2026 | Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2 May 2025 | Rayo Vallecano | 1–0 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Getafe | 0–0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 13 Apr 2024 | Rayo Vallecano | 0–0 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2 Jan 2024 | Getafe | 0–2 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutI. AzonInjury
- OutJuanmiKnee
- OutO. MangalaMuscle
Show 2 more
- OutZ. RomeroMuscle
- OutC. UcheKnee
- OutA. BatallaBroken calfbone
- OutLuiz FelipeKnee
- OutA. RatiuMuscle
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Getafe 4Rayo Vallecano 30
- Matches in the last 14 days: Getafe 2 · Rayo Vallecano 0
- Referee
- Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
