Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Persebaya Surabaya to win: 68%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 60% · bookies 60%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three see Persebaya favoured but with more doubt than the published 68% suggests, given their drawing habit and Persepam's strong away scoring. The sceptic also flags the goal line as slightly high against low-scoring head-to-heads, though Persepam's open games could lift it. A tight home win with the draw a real live option.
What our AI analysts say
Both analysts think Persepam Madura Utd's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes Persepam Madura Utd favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersPersepam's attacking rate makes this livelier than Persebaya's low-scoring form suggests.
I still see the hosts edging it, with goals on both sides.
Persepam Madura Utd: strongly underrated
High The Dressing Room
the table and pressurePersepam sit 4th on 13 points from six games, four clear of 10th-placed Persebaya, who have drawn four of six and only lost once. Both had four days' rest with two games in 14, so no fatigue edge. Persebaya's unbeaten home run makes them stubborn, but the visitors' form earns them real respect.
Persepam Madura Utd: strongly underrated
High Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Persebaya Surabaya are clear favourites at 68%, with Persepam Madura Utd on 13% and the draw on 19%. Persebaya Surabaya are 10th and Persepam Madura Utd 4th in Liga 1 Indonesia. In their last five league games, Persebaya Surabaya won two and Persepam Madura Utd three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Persebaya Surabaya win or draw
- 87%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- Persepam Madura Utd win or draw
- 32%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 60%
- 4+ goals
- 37%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 2.2 goals from Persebaya Surabaya and 0.9 from Persepam Madura Utd. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 3–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 68% | 20% | 13% | Stats preview | #1388 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Persebaya Surabaya: last 6
LDWDWD · 6 scored, 5 conceded
| 22 Oct | at PSM Makassar | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs PSS Sleman | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Isenmulang Kalteng | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Garudayaksa | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs PSIM Yogyakarta | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Bhayangkara FC | 1–1 | D |
Last 3 at home: DDW
Persepam Madura Utd: last 6
WDLWWW · 11 scored, 7 conceded
| 22 Oct | vs Persib Bandung | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Oct | vs Bhayangkara FC | 3–3 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Persik Kediri | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs PSIM Yogyakarta | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at PSS Sleman | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Persijap | 2–0 | W |
Last 2 away: LW
Season stats
| Persebaya Surabaya | Persepam Madura Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.83 |
| 0.83 | Goals conceded per game | 1.17 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 17% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 17% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Liga 1 Indonesia table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persija | 6 | +10 | 15 | WLWWW |
| 2 | Dewa United | 7 | +2 | 14 | LWDWW |
| 3 | Bali United | 7 | +12 | 13 | DWLWL |
| 4 | Persepam Madura Utd | 6 | +4 | 13 | WDLWW |
| 5 | Persib Bandung | 7 | +3 | 13 | WLWDW |
| 6 | Persita | 6 | +3 | 12 | DWWDW |
| 7 | Bhayangkara FC | 6 | +3 | 10 | WDDWD |
| 8 | Persik Kediri | 6 | +3 | 10 | WLWDW |
| 9 | Arema FC | 7 | +2 | 9 | WLLDD |
| 10 | Persebaya Surabaya | 6 | +1 | 9 | LDWDW |
| 11 | PSM Makassar | 6 | -3 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 12 | Java United | 7 | +0 | 7 −2 | DDWWL |
| 13 | Pusamania Borneo | 5 | -2 | 6 | LWLWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Persebaya Surabaya won 3, Persepam Madura Utd 2, 1 draw; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr 2026 | Persebaya Surabaya | 1–2 | Persepam Madura Utd | Liga 1 |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Persepam Madura Utd | 0–1 | Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| 20 Apr 2025 | Persebaya Surabaya | 1–0 | Persepam Madura Utd | Liga 1 |
| 2 Dec 2024 | Persepam Madura Utd | 1–2 | Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| 13 Mar 2024 | Persebaya Surabaya | 0–0 | Persepam Madura Utd | Liga 1 |
| 17 Sep 2023 | Persepam Madura Utd | 3–0 | Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
Match context
- Travel for Persepam Madura Utd
- 80 km
- Rest days
- Persebaya Surabaya 4Persepam Madura Utd 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Persebaya Surabaya 2 · Persepam Madura Utd 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 27°C · wind 10 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Liga 1 Indonesia average: 2.91 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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