Bhayangkara FC vs PSM Makassar prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Bhayangkara to win: 64%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 57% · bookies 57%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean towards Bhayangkara, broadly in line with the published 64/21/15, though the sceptic's H2H case tempers the margin. The Coach and Dressing Room see goals as likely given Bhayangkara's perfect scoring record, while the sceptic's low-scoring head-to-head record pulls the over down.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBhayangkara's home solidity meets PSM's leaky away defence
Bhayangkara keep clean sheets in 33% of matches and have shipped just one goal in their last three at home, while PSM concede 2.00 per game overall and lost twice heavily away recently. Bhayangkara have failed to score in 0% of league games, so a home goal looks near certain.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureUnbeaten hosts with rest advantage face a PSM side short on recovery
Bhayangkara sit 6th, unbeaten (W2 D4) with 10 points from 6, and have six days' rest versus PSM's four. PSM are 11th on 8 points but arrive on back-to-back wins. Bhayangkara's four straight draws at home pressure suggests another tight, tense affair.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHead-to-head history argues the home price is too short
Bhayangkara have not beaten PSM in six meetings (0 wins, 4 draws), and PSM won the 2026 meeting 2-1. Those games averaged just 1.8 goals, yet the over is published at 57%.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Bhayangkara FC are clear favourites at 64%, with PSM Makassar on 15% and the draw on 21%. Bhayangkara FC are 7th and PSM Makassar 11th in Liga 1 Indonesia. In their last five league games, Bhayangkara FC won two and PSM Makassar two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Bhayangkara FC win or draw
- 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- PSM Makassar win or draw
- 36%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 57%
- 4+ goals
- 35%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 2.1 goals from Bhayangkara FC and 0.9 from PSM Makassar. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (10%), 3–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% | 21% | 15% | Stats preview | #1386 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Bhayangkara FC: last 6
WDDWDD · 11 scored, 8 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs PSIM Yogyakarta | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Oct | at Persepam Madura Utd | 3–3 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Arema FC | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Isenmulang Kalteng | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Dewa United | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Persebaya Surabaya | 1–1 | D |
Last 3 at home: WWD
PSM Makassar: last 6
WWLDDL · 9 scored, 12 conceded
| 22 Oct | vs Persebaya Surabaya | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Oct | at PSIM Yogyakarta | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at PSS Sleman | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Persita | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Arema FC | 3–3 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Persib Bandung | 1–3 | L |
Last 3 away: WLL
Season stats
| Bhayangkara FC | PSM Makassar | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.83 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 2.33 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 17% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Liga 1 Indonesia table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Persepam Madura Utd | 6 | +4 | 13 | WDLWW |
| 5 | Persib Bandung | 7 | +3 | 13 | WLWDW |
| 6 | Persita | 6 | +3 | 12 | DWWDW |
| 7 | Bhayangkara FC | 6 | +3 | 10 | WDDWD |
| 8 | Persik Kediri | 6 | +3 | 10 | WLWDW |
| 9 | Arema FC | 7 | +2 | 9 | WLLDD |
| 10 | Persebaya Surabaya | 6 | +1 | 9 | LDWDW |
| 11 | PSM Makassar | 6 | -3 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 12 | Java United | 7 | +0 | 7 −2 | DDWWL |
| 13 | Pusamania Borneo | 5 | -2 | 6 | LWLWL |
| 14 | Garudayaksa | 7 | -7 | 5 | LLWLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Bhayangkara FC won 0, PSM Makassar 2, 4 draws; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 May 2026 | PSM Makassar | 2–1 | Bhayangkara FC | Liga 1 |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Bhayangkara FC | 1–1 | PSM Makassar | Liga 1 |
| 8 Dec 2023 | PSM Makassar | 1–1 | Bhayangkara FC | Liga 1 |
| 29 Jul 2023 | Bhayangkara FC | 0–0 | PSM Makassar | Liga 1 |
| 17 Mar 2023 | PSM Makassar | 3–1 | Bhayangkara FC | Liga 1 |
| 12 Dec 2022 | Bhayangkara FC | 0–0 | PSM Makassar | Liga 1 |
Match context
- Travel for PSM Makassar
- 1,599 km
- -1 h time zone
- Rest days
- Bhayangkara FC 6PSM Makassar 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Bhayangkara FC 2 · PSM Makassar 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 26°C · wind 18 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Liga 1 Indonesia average: 2.91 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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