Sunderland vs Brentford prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Brentford to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 54%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The consensus points towards a high-scoring match, with Brentford showing the strongest attacking metrics. While the dressing room notes both sides are rested, the combined analysis suggests a clear chance for an away victory or a draw, with the over 2.5 goals line appearing likely.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think a draw is underrated. The Coach thinks Brentford are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBrentford's attacking output is strong, supported by high expected goals and recent form.
Brentford averages 1.6 expected goals compared to Sunderland's 1.2. In their last 5 away games, they scored 8 goals while conceding 7.
Brentford: clearly underrated
Med The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides are relatively fresh, but Sunderland's recent form has been inconsistent.
Both teams have 3 days rest since their last fixture.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market favours Brentford, but the high goal frequency in H2H suggests a high-scoring affair.
In the last 5 H2H encounters, there were 2 draws and 3.2 goals per game. The published odds show Brentford at 48%, while the total line for over 2.5 goals is 54%.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Brentford are favourites at 47%, with Sunderland on 27% and the draw on 26%. In their last five matches across all competitions, Sunderland won one and Brentford two. The prices point to about 2.8 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sunderland win or draw
- 52%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Brentford win or draw
- 73%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Sunderland and 1.6 from Brentford. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 0–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% | 26% | 48% | Stats preview | #1682 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sunderland: last 6
DDLWLL · 6 scored, 11 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Leeds Premier League | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Oct | at Lech Poznan UEFA Europa League | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Bournemouth Premier League | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | at Torreense UEFA Europa League | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Brighton Premier League | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Manchester City Premier League | 3–5 | L |
Last 5 at home: DLWLW
Brentford: last 6
DLDWWD · 11 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Hull City Premier League | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Liverpool Premier League | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Aston Villa Premier League | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Chelsea Premier League | 3–0 | W |
| 15 Sep | at Reading | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Bournemouth Premier League | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: DDWDD
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sunderland won 1, Brentford 2, 2 draws; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Sep 2026 | Brentford | 1–1 | Sunderland | Premier League |
| 7 Jan 2026 | Brentford | 3–0 | Sunderland | Premier League |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Sunderland | 2–1 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 17 Feb 2018 | Sunderland | 0–2 | Brentford | Championship |
| 21 Oct 2017 | Brentford | 3–3 | Sunderland | Championship |
Match context
- Stadium
- Stadium of Light, Sunderland
- 49,000 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Sunderland 3Brentford 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sunderland 4 · Brentford 2
- Coaches
- R. Le Bris
- Sunderland, since Jul 2024
- Keith Andrews
- Brentford, since Jul 2025
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
