Everton vs Newcastle United prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Everton to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 55%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The coach sees Everton's defensive control at home vs Newcastle's porous away defence, the dressing room adds cup stakes and a rested home side, while the sceptic still leans home after two 2026 head-to-head wins. Readings converge near the published numbers: Everton about 44%, draw 27%, Newcastle 29%, with over 2.5 goals a shade below the published 55%.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersEverton's clean sheets at home meet Newcastle's leaky defence
Everton have kept clean sheets in all their games in this competition and have not failed to score in it, but only 50% of their matches go over 2.5 goals. Newcastle concede a goal a game in the cup and both teams have scored in half of theirs.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureEverton's home form and extra rest edge a tight cup tie
Everton have won three of their last five at home and get an extra day's rest. Newcastle's away run of W L L W W shows volatility, conceding eight in five. Everton's only defeat in six came against Arsenal and Chelsea, so the softer cup test at home favours the hosts.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices look fair but Newcastle's away collapse gives Everton the edge
At 44% Everton are priced as clear favourites, yet they have lost two straight and won only three of six. Head-to-head says Everton: three wins in the last six and 2.8 goals a game, so the home lean looks right.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
Takes 1–3 minutes: we search the news and read the sources. Keep this page open, it reloads when the analysis is ready. It is saved for everyone who opens this match.
Full analysis in progress
Starting…
Usually 1–3 minutes. Keep this page open.
The full analysis is ready. Loading it…
The full analysis could not be completed. Please try again later.
Too many requests right now. Please try again in a few minutes.
In short
Everton are slight favourites at 44%, with Newcastle United on 29% and the draw on 27%. In their last five matches across all competitions, Everton won two and Newcastle United two. The prices point to about 2.9 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Everton win or draw
- 71%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Newcastle United win or draw
- 56%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Everton and 1.3 from Newcastle United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (7%), 1–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% | 27% | 29% | Stats preview | #1766 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Everton: last 6
LLDWWD · 4 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Arsenal Premier League | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Chelsea Premier League | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Hull City Premier League | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Ipswich Premier League | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Wolves | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Tottenham Premier League | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: LWWDW
Newcastle United: last 6
WLLWLW · 7 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Crystal Palace Premier League | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Aston Villa Premier League | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Oct | at Coventry Premier League | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Hull City Premier League | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | at Leeds Premier League | 1–4 | L |
| 8 Sep | at Millwall | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WLLWW
Season stats
| Everton | Newcastle United | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 0.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 3.00 |
| 4.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 0% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 100% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 0.50 | Yellow cards per game | 2.00 |
League matches only, 2 games each.
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Everton won 3, Newcastle United 1, 2 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026 | Newcastle United | 1–3 | Everton | Friendlies Clubs |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Newcastle United | 2–3 | Everton | Premier League |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Everton | 1–4 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 25 May 2025 | Newcastle United | 0–1 | Everton | Premier League |
| 5 Oct 2024 | Everton | 0–0 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2 Apr 2024 | Newcastle United | 1–1 | Everton | Premier League |
Match context
- Stadium
- Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside
- 52,888 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Everton 5Newcastle United 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Everton 2 · Newcastle United 2
- Coaches
- D. Moyes
- Everton, since Jan 2025
- M. Jaissle
- Newcastle United, since Aug 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
