AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Bournemouth to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 56%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean towards a close game with Bournemouth marginally favoured, close to the published 42-27-32. The Coach and Sceptic both see goals, backing the 56% over 2.5 line, while the Dressing Room's fixture-load angle adds only mild caution. A tight, scoring contest with a slight home edge is the consensus reading.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think AFC Bournemouth's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo in-form attacks point to goals, with Bournemouth's home edge the difference.
Bournemouth have won their last four in all competitions, all without conceding, and have 10 scored and 3 conceded in their last five at home. Villa arrive with four straight away wins, 10 scored and 5 conceded on the road. Both sides are scoring freely, which fits a 3+ goal game.
Bournemouth: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFixture load and rest give Bournemouth a slight edge in a cup tie.
Bournemouth have played four games in 14 days on three days' rest, while Villa have three games in 14 days and four days' rest.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe head-to-head makes Villa's 32% look slightly too low.
Bournemouth have not beaten Villa in the last six meetings: three Villa wins, three draws, 2.8 goals per game, including a 4-0 and a 1-1 in 2026.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
Takes 1–3 minutes: we search the news and read the sources. Keep this page open, it reloads when the analysis is ready. It is saved for everyone who opens this match.
Full analysis in progress
Starting…
Usually 1–3 minutes. Keep this page open.
The full analysis is ready. Loading it…
The full analysis could not be completed. Please try again later.
Too many requests right now. Please try again in a few minutes.
In short
AFC Bournemouth are slight favourites at 42%, with Aston Villa on 32% and the draw on 26%. In their last five matches across all competitions, AFC Bournemouth won four and Aston Villa four. The prices point to about 2.9 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- AFC Bournemouth win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Aston Villa win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 56%
- 4+ goals
- 34%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 59%
- No
- 41%
We expect about 1.6 goals from AFC Bournemouth and 1.4 from Aston Villa. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 27% | 32% | Stats preview | #1660 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
AFC Bournemouth: last 6
WWWWLL · 12 scored, 6 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Manchester United Premier League | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs AC Milan UEFA Europa League | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Sunderland Premier League | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Sturm Graz UEFA Europa League | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Chelsea Premier League | 1–5 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Liverpool Premier League | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWWLD
Aston Villa: last 6
WWWWDW · 17 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Manchester City Premier League | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Oct | vs Viking UEFA Champions League | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Newcastle Premier League | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Fenerbahçe UEFA Champions League | 6–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Brentford Premier League | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Tottenham Premier League | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 away: WWWWD
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: AFC Bournemouth won 0, Aston Villa 3, 3 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | AFC Bournemouth | 1–1 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Aston Villa | 4–0 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 10 May 2025 | AFC Bournemouth | 0–1 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 26 Oct 2024 | Aston Villa | 1–1 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Aston Villa | 3–1 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 3 Dec 2023 | AFC Bournemouth | 2–2 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
Match context
- Stadium
- Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset
- 12,000 seats · grass
- Rest days
- AFC Bournemouth 3Aston Villa 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: AFC Bournemouth 4 · Aston Villa 3
- Coaches
- M. Rose
- AFC Bournemouth, since Aug 2026
- Unai Emery
- Aston Villa, since Nov 2022
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
