Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Liverpool to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 66% · bookies 66%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The goals case is the strongest shared theme - 66-67% for over 2.5 and both teams scoring - backed by Liverpool's leaky home record, Chelsea's away record and a head-to-head averaging 3.0 goals.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 2 think Liverpool's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureA tight cup tie with Liverpool slightly fresher in schedule terms.
Liverpool have 3 days' rest but 3 games in 14 days; Chelsea have 4 days and only 2 in the same span. Liverpool's last 6 include five wins, Chelsea's three, and the EFL Cup gives both a genuine route to silverware, so neither side is likely to hold back.
Liverpool: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe prices look fair, though Chelsea's away record gives pause.
The 66% over line matches the 3.0 goals-per-game history well.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Liverpool are slight favourites at 42%, with Chelsea on 34% and the draw on 24%. In their last five matches across all competitions, Liverpool won four and Chelsea two. The prices point to about 3.4 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Liverpool win or draw
- 66%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Chelsea win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 66%
- 4+ goals
- 44%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 67%
- No
- 33%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Liverpool and 1.6 from Chelsea. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 24% | 34% | Stats preview | #1677 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Liverpool: last 6
WWWWLW · 15 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Brighton Premier League | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Villarreal UEFA Champions League | 4–3 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Brentford Premier League | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | at Lask Linz UEFA Champions League | 6–3 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Manchester City Premier League | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Bournemouth Premier League | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWLWD
Chelsea: last 6
LWWLDW · 15 scored, 11 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Tottenham Premier League | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Everton Premier League | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Bournemouth Premier League | 5–1 | W |
| 18 Sep | at Brentford Premier League | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Hull City Premier League | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Sep | vs Leeds | 6–3 | W |
Last 4 away: WLLW
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Liverpool won 3, Chelsea 2, 1 draw; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2026 | Liverpool | 1–1 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Chelsea | 2–1 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 4 May 2025 | Chelsea | 3–1 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 20 Oct 2024 | Liverpool | 2–1 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 25 Feb 2024 | Chelsea | 0–1 | Liverpool | League Cup |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Liverpool | 4–1 | Chelsea | Premier League |
Match context
- Stadium
- Anfield, Liverpool
- 61,276 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Liverpool 3Chelsea 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Liverpool 3 · Chelsea 2
- Coaches
- Andoni Iraola
- Liverpool, since Jul 2026
- Xabi Alonso
- Chelsea, since Jul 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
