SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Union St. Gilloise to win: 66%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 61%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The consensus points strongly towards a Union St. Gilloise victory, backed by their superior league position and defensive record. However, Beveren's ability to score 10 goals in their last five home games suggests they will challenge the total goals line.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersUnion St. Gilloise's high scoring rate and defensive solidity suggest they will control the game.
Union averages 3.00 goals scored per game and concedes only 0.67. Beveren averages 1.33 goals scored but concedes 2.00 per game.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureUnion's strong league position and consistent form put them in a commanding position against a struggling Beveren.
Union is 3rd with 23 points from 9 games, while Beveren sits in 12th with 10 points. Union has a recent run of 5 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 fixtures.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongWhile Union is the clear favourite, Beveren's strong home scoring record suggests they can keep the game competitive.
Union's away form has seen them score 13 goals in 5 matches. However, Beveren has scored 10 goals in their last 5 home fixtures.
Union St. Gilloise: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Union St. Gilloise are clear favourites at 66%, with SK Beveren on 15% and the draw on 19%. SK Beveren are 12th and Union St. Gilloise 3rd in the Belgian Pro League. In their last five league games, SK Beveren won two and Union St. Gilloise four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- SK Beveren win or draw
- 35%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 81%
- Union St. Gilloise win or draw
- 85%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 61%
- 4+ goals
- 39%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.0 goals from SK Beveren and 2.2 from Union St. Gilloise. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–2 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (10%), 0–1 (9%), 1–1 (9%), 0–3 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19% | 19% | 61% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1770 | |
| 2 | 15% | 19% | 65% | Prices moved | #2096 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
SK Beveren: last 6
DWLLWW · 13 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | at KVC Westerlo | 4–4 | D |
| 16 Oct | vs Habay-la-Neuve Cup | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Lommel United | 1–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Kortrijk | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs St. Truiden | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs OH Leuven | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWWW
Union St. Gilloise: last 6
WWWDDW · 16 scored, 4 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Cercle Brugge | 5–2 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs Hapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League | 4–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Nijlen Cup | 3–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Real Sociedad UEFA Europa League | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs OH Leuven | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Antwerp | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WWWWL
Season stats
| SK Beveren | Union St. Gilloise | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Goals scored per game | 3.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 0.67 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game at home | 2.80 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 3.25 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 33% | Both teams scored | 44% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 56% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 11% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Belgian Pro League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 9 | +15 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 9 | +16 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Union St. Gilloise | 9 | +21 | 23 | WDWWW |
| 4 | Charleroi | 9 | +6 | 21 | LWWWL |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 9 | -1 | 16 | LWWWD |
| 6 | Genk | 9 | +5 | 15 | WWLDD |
| … | |||||
| 9 | Standard Liege | 9 | -1 | 11 | LLLLW |
| 10 | Zulte Waregem | 9 | -2 | 11 | LLLLW |
| 11 | Antwerp | 9 | -5 | 10 | WLLLL |
| 12 | SK Beveren | 9 | -6 | 10 | DLLWW |
| 13 | St. Truiden | 9 | -2 | 8 | LLLLW |
| 14 | RAAL La Louvière | 9 | -7 | 7 | WLLWL |
| 15 | KV Mechelen | 8 | -8 | 6 | WDLLD |
Match context
- Travel for Union St. Gilloise
- 40 km
- Rest days
- SK Beveren 7Union St. Gilloise 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: SK Beveren 1 · Union St. Gilloise 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 9°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Belgian Pro League average: 3.19 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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