Monza vs Cagliari prediction

Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works

KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model

Who wins?

Monza to win: 42%, about 2 in 5

Monza42%Bookies 42

Draw29%Bookies 29

Cagliari29%Bookies 29

Goals call2 goals or fewer 54% · bookies 54% · ✗ 4 goals

✓ Favourite won (Monza 42%) Ledger record ↗

AI forecastStats & H2HLineups & info

In short

Monza are slight favourites at 42%, with Cagliari on 29% and the draw on 29%. Monza are 15th and Cagliari 7th in Serie A. In their last five league games, Monza won one and Cagliari three.

More markets

Win or draw (double chance)

Monza win or draw: 72%
Either team wins (no draw): 71%
Cagliari win or draw: 58%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals: 72%
3+ goals: 46%
4+ goals: 24%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes: 51%
No: 49%

We expect about 1.4 goals from Monza and 1.1 from Cagliari. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).

How these numbers are made

A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.

Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology

Prediction history

#	Published	Home	Draw	Away	Reason	Record
1	18 Oct 17:33	39%	30%	30%	Stats preview	#165
2	19 Oct 11:35	40%	29%	31%	Updated news and prices	#247
3	19 Oct 16:41	42%	29%	28%	Prices moved	#274

Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).

Form

All competitions, newest first.

Monza: last 6

LWLDWL · 9 scored, 11 conceded

11 Oct	at Lazio	1–3	L
18 Sep	vs Sassuolo	2–1	W
13 Sep	at Lecce	2–3	L
6 Sep	at Parma	1–1	D
1 Sep	at Torino Coppa Italia	1–0	W
29 Aug	vs Udinese	2–3	L

Last 3 at home: WLW

Cagliari: last 6

DWWWLL · 6 scored, 5 conceded

11 Oct	vs Juventus	1–1	D
19 Sep	at Udinese	1–0	W
12 Sep	at Atalanta	2–1	W
7 Sep	vs Lecce	1–0	W
3 Sep	vs Hellas Verona Coppa Italia	1–2	L
30 Aug	vs Inter	0–1	L

Last 3 away: WWW

Season stats

Monza		Cagliari
1.50	Goals scored per game	1.00
2.50	Goals conceded per game	0.50
2.00	Scored per game at home	0.67
1.25	Scored per game away	1.33
83%	Matches over 2.5 goals	17%
100%	Both teams scored	33%
0%	Clean sheets	50%
0%	Failed to score	17%

League matches only, 6 games each.

Serie A table

#	Team	Pld	Goal diff.	Points	League form
5	AC Milan	7	+7	15	WDWDD
6	Frosinone	8	+4	14	DWLWD
7	Torino	8	+2	13	WWWDL
8	Cagliari	8	-3	13	LLDWW
9	Napoli	8	+3	11	DLWDW
10	Juventus	7	+1	11	LDWLD
11	Atalanta	8	-1	10	DLWLL
12	Lecce	7	-3	9	WLLWL
13	Bologna	8	-2	8	WLWDL
14	Sassuolo	8	-4	8	LLDLW
15	Monza	8	-3	7	LWLWL
16	Genoa	8	-7	7	WLWLD
17	Udinese	7	-7	4	LLLLL
18	Fiorentina	8	-10	4	LLLDW