AC Milan vs Atalanta prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
AC Milan to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 59% · bookies 58% · ✓ 5 goals
In short
AC Milan are favourites at 55%, with Atalanta on 20% and the draw on 25%. AC Milan are 7th and Atalanta 10th in Serie A. In their last five league games, AC Milan won two and Atalanta two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- AC Milan win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Atalanta win or draw
- 45%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 59%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.9 goals from AC Milan and 1.1 from Atalanta. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (9%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% | 24% | 19% | Stats preview | #56 | |
| 2 | 55% | 25% | 20% | Updated news and prices | #82 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
AC Milan: last 6
WDWLDD · 11 scored, 6 conceded
| 15 Oct | at Red Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League | 4–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Sassuolo | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Lecce | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Benfica UEFA Europa League | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Lazio | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Juventus | 1–1 | D |
Last 3 at home: WLW
Atalanta: last 6
WWLLLW · 9 scored, 8 conceded
| 15 Oct | vs Pafos UEFA Europa Conference League | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs Venezia | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Juventus | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Cagliari | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | at AS Roma | 1–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
Last 3 away: LLW
Season stats
| AC Milan | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.83 | Goals scored per game | 1.33 |
| 0.83 | Goals conceded per game | 1.33 |
| 2.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.75 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 0.50 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 17% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Serie A table
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: AC Milan won 0, Atalanta 4, 2 draws; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | AC Milan | 2–3 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 28 Oct 2025 | Atalanta | 1–1 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 20 Apr 2025 | AC Milan | 0–1 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 6 Dec 2024 | Atalanta | 2–1 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 25 Feb 2024 | AC Milan | 1–1 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 10 Jan 2024 | AC Milan | 1–2 | Atalanta | Coppa Italia |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutM. GabbiaThigh
- OutA. SaelemaekersAnkle
- Susp.E. ElmasSuspended
- OutI. HienMuscle
- OutF. KessieCalf
Show 4 more
- OutO. KossounouThigh
- OutG. RaspadoriThigh
- OutG. ScalviniThigh
- OutK. SulemanaKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Atalanta
- 399 km
- Rest days
- AC Milan 2Atalanta 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: AC Milan 2 · Atalanta 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 17°C · wind 3 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Daniele Chiffi
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 2.89 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
