Fiorentina vs Como prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Como to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 59% · bookies 59% · ✓ 4 goals
In short
Como are favourites at 45%, with Fiorentina on 29% and the draw on 26%. Fiorentina are 18th and Como 8th in Serie A. In their last five league games, Fiorentina won one and Como three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Fiorentina win or draw
- 55%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Como win or draw
- 71%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 59%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Fiorentina and 1.7 from Como. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 2–1 (7%), 0–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% | 26% | 47% | Stats preview | #48 | |
| 2 | 30% | 27% | 43% | Updated news and prices | #99 | |
| 3 | 29% | 26% | 45% | Updated news and prices | #107 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Fiorentina: last 6
LDWWLL · 10 scored, 10 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Genoa | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Napoli | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Pisa Coppa Italia | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Venezia | 4–2 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Torino | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Frosinone | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: DWLLW
Como: last 6
LDLWWW · 12 scored, 8 conceded
| 14 Oct | at Feyenoord UEFA Champions League | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs AS Roma | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Frosinone | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Sep | vs Parma | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Sep | vs RB Leipzig UEFA Champions League | 4–1 | W |
| 4 Sep | at Genoa | 4–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LLWWD
Season stats
| Fiorentina | Como | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.17 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 2.33 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 1.75 |
| 83% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Serie A table
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Fiorentina won 2, Como 3, 0 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Como | 1–2 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 27 Jan 2026 | Fiorentina | 1–3 | Como | Coppa Italia |
| 21 Sep 2025 | Fiorentina | 1–2 | Como | Serie A |
| 16 Feb 2025 | Fiorentina | 0–2 | Como | Serie A |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Como | 0–2 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutA. AttaAbdominal strain
- OutF. ParisiKnee
- OutL. RanieriLeg
Show 1 more
- OutR. SottilBack
- OutA. DiaoThigh
- OutM. KeanLeg
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Como
- 280 km
- Rest days
- Fiorentina 8Como 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Fiorentina 1 · Como 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 23°C · wind 8 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Marco Di Bello
- Goals in this league
- Serie A average: 2.89 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
