Burgos vs CD Sabadell prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Burgos 34%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 67% · bookies 67% · ✓ 1 goals
In short
Burgos are slight favourites at 34%, with CD Sabadell on 33% and the draw on 33%. Burgos are 10th and CD Sabadell 9th in Segunda División. In their last five league games, Burgos won three and CD Sabadell two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Burgos win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 67%
- CD Sabadell win or draw
- 66%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 59%
- 3+ goals
- 32%
- 4+ goals
- 14%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 40%
- No
- 60%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Burgos and 1.0 from CD Sabadell. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (14%), 0–1 (13%), 2–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% | 34% | 34% | Stats preview | #46 | |
| 2 | 33% | 33% | 33% | Updated news and prices | #126 | |
| 3 | 34% | 33% | 33% | Official lineups | #188 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Burgos: last 6
LLWWWD · 7 scored, 5 conceded
| 12 Oct | vs Granada CF | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Almeria | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Eldense | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Las Palmas | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs AD Ceuta FC | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: LWWDW
CD Sabadell: last 6
WDDWLW · 9 scored, 7 conceded
| 10 Oct | at AD Ceuta FC | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs FC Andorra | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Celta de Vigo II | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Oviedo | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Mallorca | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Sep | vs Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 away: WDLDD
Season stats
| Burgos | CD Sabadell | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Goals scored per game | 1.11 |
| 1.11 | Goals conceded per game | 0.78 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.75 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game away | 0.60 |
| 56% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 56% | Both teams scored | 44% |
| 22% | Clean sheets | 44% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 44% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mallorca | 11 | +7 | 19 | DDWDL |
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 10 | +2 | 19 | WWWLW |
| 8 | Oviedo | 11 | +3 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 9 | Burgos | 10 | +3 | 17 | WLLWW |
| 10 | CD Sabadell | 11 | +2 | 17 | DLWDD |
| 11 | Cordoba | 11 | -3 | 15 | WWLWL |
| 12 | Eldense | 10 | +0 | 14 | WWWLL |
| 13 | Tenerife | 11 | -2 | 14 | DDDLD |
Match context
- Travel for CD Sabadell
- 488 km
- Rest days
- Burgos 6CD Sabadell 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Burgos 1 · CD Sabadell 1
- Referee
- M. Perez
- Goals in this league
- Segunda División average: 2.66 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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