Raith Rovers vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Raith 38%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 56% · bookies 56% · ✓ 2 goals
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Raith Rovers's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersRaith's home defence and Inverness's away leaks point to a tight, low-scoring edge to the hosts
Inverness concede 1.00 per game and 8 in their last 5 away. Both sides fail to score 27% of the time, so goals look scarce.
Raith: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThird hosts fourth with Raith five points clear and in the stronger recent run
Raith sit 3rd on 21 points from 11 games, five ahead of 4th-placed Inverness on 16. Raith have lost once in six, while Inverness arrive with two games in 14 days versus Raith's one. A home win would stretch the gap to eight points.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 38% home price looks slightly light given Raith's dominance of this fixture
Raith have won 5 of the last 6 head-to-heads with no draws, including 4-1 and 5-1 home wins, at 3.3 goals per game. Yet the total line sits at just 44% for 3+ goals and both-teams-score at 49%, which looks low against that scoring history.
Raith: slightly underrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Raith Rovers are slight favourites at 38%, with Inverness Caledonian Thistle on 33% and the draw on 29%. Raith Rovers are 3rd and Inverness Caledonian Thistle 4th in the Scottish Championship. In their last five league games, Raith Rovers won two and Inverness Caledonian Thistle three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Raith Rovers win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Inverness Caledonian Thistle win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 70%
- 3+ goals
- 44%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 49%
- No
- 51%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Raith Rovers and 1.2 from Inverness Caledonian Thistle. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%), 0–0 (9%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% | 29% | 33% | Stats preview | #711 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Raith Rovers: last 6
DWWLDW · 9 scored, 4 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Stenhousemuir | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Queen's Park | 2–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Morton | 2–1 | W |
| 25 Sep | vs Livingston | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Partick | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Arbroath | 4–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWWD
Inverness Caledonian Thistle: last 6
WLWWDW · 12 scored, 5 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Arbroath | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | at Queen's Park | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Stenhousemuir | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Sep | vs Morton | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Livingston | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Ayr Utd | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LDWLD
Season stats
| Raith Rovers | Inverness Caledonian Thistle | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.45 | Goals scored per game | 1.27 |
| 0.64 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.17 |
| 1.17 | Scored per game away | 1.40 |
| 27% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| 36% | Both teams scored | 45% |
| 45% | Clean sheets | 45% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 27% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Scottish Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 12 | +11 | 25 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 11 | +5 | 23 | LDLWW |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 12 | +7 | 21 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle | 12 | +5 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 11 | +3 | 18 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Livingston | 12 | +4 | 17 | WDLLW |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | -2 | 12 | LDWLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Raith Rovers won 5, Inverness Caledonian Thistle 1, 0 draws; 3.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Sep 2026 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle | 0–2 | Raith Rovers | Championship |
| 5 Apr 2026 | Raith Rovers | 4–1 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle | Challenge Cup |
| 26 Jul 2025 | Raith Rovers | 5–1 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle | League Cup |
| 6 Jul 2024 | Raith Rovers | 1–0 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle | Friendlies Clubs |
| 19 Apr 2024 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle | 0–1 | Raith Rovers | Championship |
| 27 Jan 2024 | Raith Rovers | 2–3 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle | Championship |
Match context
- Rest days
- Raith Rovers 7Inverness Caledonian Thistle 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Raith Rovers 1 · Inverness Caledonian Thistle 2
- Referee
- C. Stirling
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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