Queen's Park vs Dunfermline prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Dunfermline to win: 63%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 51% · bookies 51% · ✗ 1 goals
The Verdict
On goals, the scepticism is shared - Dunfermline's 0% over-rate and the low-scoring head-to-heads suggest the 51% over line is slightly high, so we shade under.
What our AI analysts say
All three think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersDunfermline's defence and Queen's Park's blunt attack point to a low-scoring away win
Dunfermline concede just 0.60 per game with 50% clean sheets, while Queen's Park fail to score in 64% of matches and manage only 0.17 per game away. Dunfermline's games have gone over 2.5 goals 0% of the time, and both teams scored in just 36% of Queen's Park matches.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe table gap and fixture load shape a tense, low-tempo game
Queen's Park sit 10th with 7 points from 11 games against Dunfermline's 15 from 10, and the hosts have lost 8 league games already. Queen's Park had 7 days to prepare.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away win price looks right, but the goals line may be a touch high
Dunfermline have won 4 of the last 6 head-to-heads at just 1.3 goals per game, including 2-0 and 1-0 wins this season, and their last five away games produced only 3 scored and 4 conceded. The 63% away win, though, is well supported.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Dunfermline are clear favourites at 63%, with Queen's Park on 15% and the draw on 22%. Queen's Park are 10th and Dunfermline 5th in the Scottish Championship. In their last five league games, Queen's Park won one and Dunfermline two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Queen's Park win or draw
- 37%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Dunfermline win or draw
- 85%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 51%
- 4+ goals
- 29%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 0.8 goals from Queen's Park and 1.9 from Dunfermline. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–2 (12%), 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–3 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15% | 22% | 63% | Stats preview | #709 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Queen's Park: last 6
LWLLLL · 3 scored, 11 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Morton | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Inverness CT | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Raith Rovers | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Sep | at Arbroath | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Ayr Utd | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Dunfermline | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLWLL
Dunfermline: last 6
DDDWWD · 6 scored, 3 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Partick | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Livingston | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Ayr Utd | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Morton | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Queen's Park | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Arbroath | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: DWDLD
Season stats
| Queen's Park | Dunfermline | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | Goals scored per game | 0.80 |
| 1.64 | Goals conceded per game | 0.60 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.17 | Scored per game away | 0.60 |
| 36% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 0% |
| 36% | Both teams scored | 40% |
| 9% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 64% | Failed to score | 30% |
League matches only, 11 and 10 games.
Scottish Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 11 | +5 | 23 | LDLWW |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 12 | +7 | 21 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 12 | +5 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 11 | +3 | 18 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Livingston | 12 | +4 | 17 | WDLLW |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | -2 | 12 | LDWLW |
| 8 | Arbroath | 12 | -11 | 11 | LLLLW |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | -9 | 7 | WWLLL |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 12 | -13 | 7 | LLWLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Queen's Park won 0, Dunfermline 4, 2 draws; 1.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026 | Dunfermline | 2–0 | Queen's Park | Championship |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Queen's Park | 0–2 | Dunfermline | Championship |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Dunfermline | 1–0 | Queen's Park | Championship |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Queen's Park | 1–1 | Dunfermline | Championship |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Dunfermline | 0–0 | Queen's Park | Championship |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Queen's Park | 0–1 | Dunfermline | Championship |
Match context
- Rest days
- Queen's Park 7Dunfermline 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Queen's Park 2 · Dunfermline 2
- Referee
- C. Steven
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
