Greenock Morton vs Ayr United prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Ayr to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 52% · bookies 52%
Not graded: the match did not take place.
The Verdict
All three lean the same way: Ayr United justifiably favourite at 43%, Morton's two-game winning run keeping the home price from drifting much below 29%. Goals are the real question - Morton's 45% over 2.5 rate sits against Ayr's 18% and a 2.5-goals-per-game head-to-head, so the 48% published number looks roughly right.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersMorton concede heavily but their two wins hint at tightening; Ayr travel with balance
Ayr score 1.00 away versus Morton's 0.83 at home.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureAyr have the points and stability; Morton's revival buys hope, not security
Morton sit 9th with 7 points from 11 games (W2 D1 L8) and a 9-18 goal record; Ayr are 7th on 12 points (W3 D3 L5). A win here closes real ground. Both had 7 days' rest with one game in 14, so freshness is equal. Ayr's away form of W W L L D suggests they can travel.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongAyr as 43% favourites looks fair, but the goals line is the interesting bit
Head-to-head has produced 2.5 goals per game with three draws in six, and Ayr's last five away games show 5 scored, 5 conceded. Morton's two straight wins make 29% defensible. But Ayr's 18% over 2.5 rate versus Morton's 45% pulls the total either way - 48% looks about right.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Ayr United are slight favourites at 43%, with Greenock Morton on 29% and the draw on 28%. Greenock Morton are 9th and Ayr United 7th in the Scottish Championship. In their last five league games, Greenock Morton won two and Ayr United two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Greenock Morton win or draw
- 57%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Ayr United win or draw
- 71%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 73%
- 3+ goals
- 48%
- 4+ goals
- 26%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Greenock Morton and 1.4 from Ayr United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 0–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% | 28% | 43% | Stats preview | #708 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Greenock Morton: last 6
WWLLLL · 6 scored, 10 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Queen's Park | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Arbroath | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Raith Rovers | 1–2 | L |
| 25 Sep | at Inverness CT | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Dunfermline | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Livingston | 1–4 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLLLL
Ayr United: last 6
LDWLWL · 6 scored, 7 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Partick | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Dunfermline | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Livingston | 2–1 | W |
| 25 Sep | vs Stenhousemuir | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Sep | at Queen's Park | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Inverness CT | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WWLLD
Season stats
| Greenock Morton | Ayr United | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.82 | Goals scored per game | 0.91 |
| 1.64 | Goals conceded per game | 1.09 |
| 0.83 | Scored per game at home | 0.83 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 45% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 18% |
| 55% | Both teams scored | 45% |
| 9% | Clean sheets | 18% |
| 36% | Failed to score | 36% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Scottish Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Inverness CT | 12 | +5 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 11 | +3 | 18 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Livingston | 12 | +4 | 17 | WDLLW |
| 7 | Ayr United | 11 | -2 | 12 | LDWLW |
| 8 | Arbroath | 12 | -11 | 11 | LLLLW |
| 9 | Greenock Morton | 11 | -9 | 7 | WWLLL |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 12 | -13 | 7 | LLWLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Greenock Morton won 2, Ayr United 1, 3 draws; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2026 | Ayr United | 1–1 | Greenock Morton | Championship |
| 21 Mar 2026 | Ayr United | 0–1 | Greenock Morton | Championship |
| 27 Dec 2025 | Greenock Morton | 1–1 | Ayr United | Championship |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Ayr United | 2–1 | Greenock Morton | Championship |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Greenock Morton | 2–2 | Ayr United | Championship |
| 8 Mar 2025 | Greenock Morton | 2–1 | Ayr United | Championship |
Match context
- Rest days
- Greenock Morton 7Ayr United 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Greenock Morton 1 · Ayr United 1
- Referee
- K. Clancy
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
