Livingston vs Arbroath prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Livingston to win: 73%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 57% · bookies 57% · ✗ 1 goals
The Verdict
The published numbers look broadly right, with only mild doubt over how strong Livingston truly are at home, which the Sceptic flags slightly.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersLivingston's attacking weight against Arbroath's leaky away defence points to a home win with goals.
Arbroath's clean-sheet rate of 18% and 1.55 conceded per game suggest goals at one end at least.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table stakes and contrasting recent runs make Livingston the side with something to build on.
Livingston sit 6th on 14 points from 11 games, two points ahead of 8th-placed Arbroath on 11. Arbroath arrive on a run of L L L L W in all competitions and haven't won away in their last five, so pressure favours the home side mid-table.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 72% home price looks slightly generous given Livingston's shaky home record.
Livingston's home form reads L L D L W with 6 scored and 7 conceded, and Arbroath won the last head-to-head 1-0. Yet their season records justify most of the gap; the over 2.5 at 57% looks fair given Arbroath's away games saw 11 conceded in five.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Livingston are clear favourites at 73%, with Arbroath on 10% and the draw on 17%. Livingston are 6th and Arbroath 8th in the Scottish Championship. In their last five league games, Livingston won one and Arbroath one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Livingston win or draw
- 90%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 83%
- Arbroath win or draw
- 28%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 57%
- 4+ goals
- 35%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 46%
- No
- 54%
We expect about 2.3 goals from Livingston and 0.7 from Arbroath. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 3–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 1–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 72% | 17% | 10% | Stats preview | #707 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Livingston: last 6
DLLWDW · 10 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Dunfermline | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Partick | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Ayr Utd | 1–2 | L |
| 25 Sep | at Raith Rovers | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Inverness CT | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sep | at Morton | 4–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: LLDLW
Arbroath: last 6
LLLWLL · 3 scored, 13 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Inverness CT | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Morton | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Partick | 0–3 | L |
| 25 Sep | vs Queen's Park | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Stenhousemuir | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Raith Rovers | 0–4 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLW
Season stats
| Livingston | Arbroath | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.27 | Goals scored per game | 0.64 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.55 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 36% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 36% | Both teams scored | 36% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 18% |
| 36% | Failed to score | 55% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Scottish Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 12 | +7 | 21 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 12 | +5 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 11 | +3 | 18 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Livingston | 12 | +4 | 17 | WDLLW |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | -2 | 12 | LDWLW |
| 8 | Arbroath | 12 | -11 | 11 | LLLLW |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | -9 | 7 | WWLLL |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 12 | -13 | 7 | LLWLL |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Livingston won 1, Arbroath 1, 0 draws; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2026 | Arbroath | 1–0 | Livingston | Championship |
| 5 Jul 2021 | Livingston | 4–0 | Arbroath | Friendlies Clubs |
Match context
- Rest days
- Livingston 7Arbroath 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Livingston 1 · Arbroath 1
- Referee
- R. Hardie
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
