Cambridge United vs Plymouth Argyle prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Cambridge to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 55% · ✓ 5 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only one point to the home side on the strength of Cambridge's unbeaten run and Plymouth's two straight defeats. The Sceptic's five-point shift was not followed, because it leans harder on form and mood than the underlying balance between two top-five sides justifies.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Cambridge United's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFull-strength Cambridge host a depleted, reshuffling Plymouth side.
Cambridge name an unchanged, fully available XI. Plymouth are without Mathias Ross (foot), with Boateng and Baidoo only close to returning; Pepple leads the line despite a dry spell since his hamstring injury.
Cambridge: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureCambridge's ten-match unbeaten run outweighs Plymouth's two-loss slump and shaky mood at Home Park-bound visit...
Cleverley has called the 3-0 loss at Stevenage 'unacceptable' and is going 'back to basics', with top scorer Pepple on a goal drought since his hamstring return.
Plymouth Argyle: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongCambridge sit 4th with 20 pts from 11; Plymouth 5th with 19 from 12. H2H last five: 1-1-3 to the away side historically.
Cambridge: clearly underrated
Med✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Cambridge have no reported absences; Plymouth are without Mathias Ross, with two players close to returning. Our numbers stay close to the market, with a small lean to the home side.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Cambridge United win or draw
- 66%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Plymouth Argyle win or draw
- 60%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Cambridge United and 1.4 from Plymouth Argyle. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 0–1 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 39% | 26% | 35% | 55% |
| Goals model | 49% | 25% | 26% | 57% |
| AI analysts | 48% | 25% | 26% | 56% |
| Our forecast | 40% | 26% | 34% | 54% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because Plymouth remain a strong fifth-placed side despite two defeats, and Cambridge's edge in form and availability is modest rather than decisive.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Cambridge United: last 6
DWWWDW · 12 scored, 6 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Wycombe | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Barnsley | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Blackpool | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Northampton EFL Trophy | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs AFC Wimbledon | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Sep | at Gillingham EFL Trophy | 4–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWDW
Plymouth Argyle: last 6
LLWDWL · 6 scored, 9 conceded
| 20 Oct | at Stevenage | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Huddersfield | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs AFC Wimbledon | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Oct | at Newport County EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Leyton Orient | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Burton Albion | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: LDWWW
Season stats
| Cambridge United | Plymouth Argyle | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.64 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 1.27 | Goals conceded per game | 1.42 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game away | 1.67 |
| 64% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 91% | Both teams scored | 42% |
| 9% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 1.91 | Yellow cards per game | 1.33 |
League matches only, 11 and 12 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Cambridge United | Plymouth Argyle |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League One table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 12 | +13 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Stockport County | 12 | +12 | 23 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Bradford | 12 | +5 | 22 | DDWDD |
| 4 | Plymouth Argyle | 13 | +2 | 22 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Reading | 12 | +12 | 21 | WWLWD |
| 6 | Cambridge United | 12 | +3 | 20 | LDWWD |
| 7 | Oxford United | 10 | +8 | 19 | DWDWD |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 11 | +8 | 18 | LLWDD |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 11 | +4 | 18 | WWDWD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Cambridge United won 2, Plymouth Argyle 1, 3 draws; 1.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2023 | Plymouth Argyle | 3–1 | Cambridge United | League One |
| 10 Dec 2022 | Cambridge United | 0–0 | Plymouth Argyle | League One |
| 22 Feb 2022 | Cambridge United | 2–0 | Plymouth Argyle | League One |
| 17 Aug 2021 | Plymouth Argyle | 1–1 | Cambridge United | League One |
| 22 Feb 2020 | Plymouth Argyle | 0–0 | Cambridge United | League Two |
| 7 Dec 2019 | Cambridge United | 1–0 | Plymouth Argyle | League Two |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1J. Eastwood
Defenders
- 2L. Bennett
- 6K. Watts
- 15Cathal Séan Heffernan Andrews
- 22Z. Bradshaw
Midfielders
- 17P. Mpanzu
- 38G. Hoddle
- 10B. Knight
- 44Raees Bangura-Williams
- 11S. Kaikai
Forward
- 9L. Appéré
Substitutes (7)
- 5P. Bauer
- 29S. Curtis
- 13G. Breeze
- 7Isaac Heath
- 19S. Lavery
- 8O. Moxon
- 12Callum stead
Goalkeeper
- 1M. Mahoney
Defenders
- 5Julio Pleguezuelo
- 15A. Mitchell
- 45W. Harding
Midfielders
- 29M. Sorinola
- 19T. Bakinson
- 7H. White
- 3Jack Mackenzie
Forwards
- 10X. Amaechi
- 27A. Pepple
- 9W. Evans
Substitutes (7)
- 11R. Curtis
- 8J. Edwards
- 22A. Hartridge
- 23B. Ibrahim
- 14O. Irow
- 21James Storer
- 17C. Watts
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
Key facts
- Cambridge United sit fourth in League One with 20 points from 11 games.[3]
- Plymouth Argyle are fifth with 19 points from 12 games.[4]
- Cambridge are unbeaten in ten matches since the Huddersfield game at the end of August.[1]
- Cambridge have lost only one home league match this season, winning three and drawing two.[3]
- Plymouth's league record away from home this season is three wins, one draw and two defeats.[4]
- Head coach Tom Cleverley said he will 'go back to basics' before the trip and called the Stevenage defeat 'unacceptable'.[4]
- Cambridge are seeking new investment, with negotiations progressing and a deal hoped for by the end of the year.[3]
Sources
- pafc.co.uk – Preview | Cambridge (A) - Plymouth Argyle - PAFC (2026-10-23)
- bbc.co.uk – Cambridge hopeful of new investment by end of year (2026-10-21)
- bbc.co.uk – Cleverley to go back to basics with Plymouth (2026-10-22)
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- Abbey Stadium, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire
- 10,847 seats · grass
- Travel for Plymouth Argyle
- 359 km
- Rest days
- Cambridge United 3Plymouth Argyle 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Cambridge United 2 · Plymouth Argyle 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 26 km/h
- Rain expected
- Coaches
- N. Harris
- Cambridge United, since Feb 2025
- Tom Cleverley
- Plymouth Argyle, since Aug 2026
- Goals in this league
- League One average: 2.83 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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