Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Hearts of Oak to win: 74%, about 3 in 4
Goals call2 goals or fewer 51% · bookies 51% · ✓ 1 goals
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: a Hearts of Oak win built on the league's meanest defence against Holy Stars' poor away record. The sceptic's nod to tight head-to-heads only trims the home probability slightly. Goals look scarce - under 2.5 is the likelier scoring pattern, with both teams scoring unlikely.
What our AI analysts say
All three think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersHearts' defence should smother a Holy Stars side that scores so little away
Hearts concede just 0.29 per game with 71% clean sheets, while Holy Stars manage only 0.33 goals per game away. Both-teams-score is just 24% in the model. With Hearts at 1.5 expected goals, a low-scoring home win fits the numbers.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSecond hosts fifth with little between them on points, but form splits them
Hearts sit 2nd on 14 points from 7, unbeaten at home in their last three with five scored and none conceded. Holy Stars are 5th on 12 but have lost three straight away, conceding seven. Both had two games in 14 days, so rest is even.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHead-to-head history suggests the home win probability may be a touch high
The last four meetings produced one win each and two draws at just 1.0 goals per game, including a 0-0 this year. Holy Stars do win games - four from seven - so 9% away looks thin, and the 29% over 2.5 line matches their 14% over-rate being dragged up by Hearts.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Hearts of Oak are clear favourites at 74%, with Basake Holy Stars on 7% and the draw on 19%. Hearts of Oak are 2nd and Basake Holy Stars 5th in the Ghana Premier League. In their last five league games, Hearts of Oak won two and Basake Holy Stars three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Hearts of Oak win or draw
- 93%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 81%
- Basake Holy Stars win or draw
- 26%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 48%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 35%
- No
- 65%
We expect about 2.1 goals from Hearts of Oak and 0.5 from Basake Holy Stars. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (16%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 1–0 (15%), 3–0 (11%), 2–1 (8%), 1–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 66% | 25% | 9% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #631 | |
| 2 | 66% | 23% | 12% | Prices moved | #652 | |
| 3 | 74% | 19% | 7% | Prices moved | #694 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Hearts of Oak: last 6
WWDLDW · 4 scored, 2 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Vision | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Port City | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Dreams | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Karela | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Bechem United | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Bibiani Gold Stars | 2–1 | W |
Last 3 at home: WDW
Basake Holy Stars: last 6
WLWLWL · 4 scored, 7 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Bechem United | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Bibiani Gold Stars | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Berekum Chelsea | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Medeama | 1–4 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Ashanti Gold | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Young Apostles | 0–1 | L |
Last 3 away: LLL
Season stats
| Hearts of Oak | Basake Holy Stars | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.14 | Goals scored per game | 0.71 |
| 0.29 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 29% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 14% |
| 14% | Both teams scored | 14% |
| 71% | Clean sheets | 57% |
| 43% | Failed to score | 29% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Ghana Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hearts of Oak | 8 | +7 | 17 | WWWDL |
| 2 | Medeama | 7 | +6 | 14 | LWWWW |
| 3 | Samartex | 7 | +4 | 14 | WLWDD |
| 4 | Aduana Stars | 7 | +3 | 13 | WLWWW |
| 5 | Basake Holy Stars | 8 | -3 | 12 | LWLWL |
| 6 | Port City | 7 | +3 | 11 | DLWLW |
| 7 | Swedru All Blacks | 7 | +2 | 11 | WWLDD |
| 8 | Asante Kotoko | 7 | +0 | 11 | WLWLD |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Hearts of Oak won 1, Basake Holy Stars 1, 2 draws; 1.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | Hearts of Oak | 0–0 | Basake Holy Stars | Premier League |
| 2 Nov 2025 | Basake Holy Stars | 1–2 | Hearts of Oak | Premier League |
| 26 Jan 2025 | Basake Holy Stars | 0–0 | Hearts of Oak | Premier League |
| 8 Sep 2024 | Hearts of Oak | 0–1 | Basake Holy Stars | Premier League |
Match context
- Rest days
- Hearts of Oak 6Basake Holy Stars 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Hearts of Oak 2 · Basake Holy Stars 2
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
