Berekum Chelsea vs Samartex prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Berekum Chelsea to win: 54%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 60% · ✓ 0 goals
The Verdict
The analysis suggests a clash between Berekum's strong home attacking form and Samartex's defensive resilience and league position. While Berekum has the higher scoring potential, Samartex's historical success in this fixture and solid defensive record keep the away win probability competitive.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBerekum Chelsea's high scoring rate at home is the primary attacking threat in this encounter.
Berekum Chelsea has scored 2.33 goals per game at home, while Samartex concedes only 0.71 goals per game overall. Berekum's last three home fixtures saw them score 7 goals and concede just 2.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSamartex, sitting in 3rd place, brings significant pressure and stability to the fixture.
Samartex is currently 3rd in the table with 14 points from 7 games. Berekum Chelsea sits in 9th place with 10 points from 7 games. Both teams have had a rest of 7 or 8 days.
Samartex: strongly underrated
High The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongSamartex's historical dominance in head-to-head fixtures suggests Berekum's home win probability is overstated.
In the last 6 meetings, Samartex has won 3 times, compared to Berekum's 1 win. The published 54% home win probability for Berekum appears high given this history.
Samartex: strongly underrated
High Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Berekum Chelsea are favourites at 54%, with Samartex on 20% and the draw on 26%. Berekum Chelsea are 9th and Samartex 3rd in the Ghana Premier League. In their last five league games, Berekum Chelsea won two and Samartex two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Berekum Chelsea win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Samartex win or draw
- 46%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 67%
- 3+ goals
- 40%
- 4+ goals
- 20%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 43%
- No
- 57%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Berekum Chelsea and 0.8 from Samartex. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (15%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (11%), 0–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% | 26% | 20% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1118 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Berekum Chelsea: last 6
WWLDLW · 10 scored, 5 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Heart of Lions | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Debibi United | 3–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | at Basake Holy Stars | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Vision | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Port City | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Dreams | 3–1 | W |
Last 3 at home: WDW
Samartex: last 6
WLWDDW · 6 scored, 4 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Medeama | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Ashanti Gold | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Young Apostles | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Swedru All Blacks | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Asante Kotoko | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Aduana Stars | 1–0 | W |
Last 3 away: LDW
Season stats
| Berekum Chelsea | Samartex | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.43 | Goals scored per game | 1.29 |
| 1.29 | Goals conceded per game | 0.71 |
| 2.33 | Scored per game at home | 1.75 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 29% |
| 43% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Ghana Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medeama | 8 | +7 | 17 | WLWWW |
| 2 | Hearts of Oak | 8 | +7 | 17 | WWWDL |
| 3 | Samartex | 8 | +4 | 15 | DWLWD |
| 4 | Port City | 8 | +4 | 14 | WDLWL |
| 5 | Swedru All Blacks | 8 | +3 | 14 | WWWLD |
| 6 | Bechem United | 8 | +2 | 13 | WLWLW |
| 7 | Aduana Stars | 8 | +2 | 13 | LWLWW |
| 8 | Asante Kotoko | 8 | +0 | 12 | DWLWL |
| 9 | Basake Holy Stars | 8 | -3 | 12 | LWLWL |
| 10 | Berekum Chelsea | 8 | +1 | 11 | DWWLD |
| 11 | Ashanti Gold | 8 | +1 | 11 | DLWLW |
| 12 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 8 | -1 | 10 | WLWDL |
| 13 | Vision | 8 | +0 | 9 | WLLDD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Berekum Chelsea won 1, Samartex 3, 2 draws; 1.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | Samartex | 1–0 | Berekum Chelsea | Premier League |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Berekum Chelsea | 0–0 | Samartex | Premier League |
| 23 Mar 2025 | Berekum Chelsea | 0–0 | Samartex | Premier League |
| 27 Oct 2024 | Samartex | 1–0 | Berekum Chelsea | Premier League |
| 14 Apr 2024 | Samartex | 3–2 | Berekum Chelsea | Premier League |
| 5 Nov 2023 | Berekum Chelsea | 1–0 | Samartex | Premier League |
Match context
- Rest days
- Berekum Chelsea 8Samartex 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Berekum Chelsea 1 · Samartex 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
