Vila Nova vs Novorizontino prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Vila Nova 34%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 61% · bookies 61% · ✗ 4 goals
In short
Vila Nova are slight favourites at 34%, with Novorizontino on 34% and the draw on 32%. Vila Nova are 2nd and Novorizontino 3rd in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, Vila Nova won four and Novorizontino three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Vila Nova win or draw
- 65%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 68%
- Novorizontino win or draw
- 66%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 65%
- 3+ goals
- 39%
- 4+ goals
- 19%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 45%
- No
- 55%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Vila Nova and 1.1 from Novorizontino. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 0–1 (12%), 1–0 (12%), 0–0 (11%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34% | 32% | 35% | Stats preview | #73 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Vila Nova: last 6
WDWWWD · 7 scored, 1 conceded
| 11 Oct | at Nautico Recife | 2–0 | W |
| 7 Oct | vs Cuiaba | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Botafogo SP | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Sep | vs Londrina | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | vs America Mineiro | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Sep | at Avai | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: DWWWW
Novorizontino: last 6
WWWDLD · 12 scored, 4 conceded
| 12 Oct | vs Ponte Preta | 5–1 | W |
| 8 Oct | at Nautico Recife | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Oct | vs Goias | 3–0 | W |
| 25 Sep | vs São Bernardo | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Sep | at Ceara | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Cuiaba | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: WLWWD
Season stats
| Vila Nova | Novorizontino | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.39 | Goals scored per game | 1.79 |
| 0.94 | Goals conceded per game | 0.85 |
| 1.94 | Scored per game at home | 1.82 |
| 0.88 | Scored per game away | 1.75 |
| 33% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| 36% | Both teams scored | 52% |
| 42% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 24% |
League matches only, 33 games each.
Brasileirão Série B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 35 | +32 | 64 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 35 | +14 | 62 | LDWDW |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | +18 | 61 | DDWWW |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 35 | +12 | 61 | DWDWD |
| 5 | Criciuma | 35 | +6 | 59 | LWWLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Vila Nova won 1, Novorizontino 4, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jun 2026 | Novorizontino | 2–1 | Vila Nova | Serie B |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Novorizontino | 1–1 | Vila Nova | Serie B |
| 30 May 2025 | Vila Nova | 0–1 | Novorizontino | Serie B |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Novorizontino | 2–0 | Vila Nova | Serie B |
| 14 May 2024 | Vila Nova | 2–1 | Novorizontino | Serie B |
| 30 Jul 2023 | Novorizontino | 3–1 | Vila Nova | Serie B |
Match context
- Rest days
- Vila Nova 7Novorizontino 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Vila Nova 2 · Novorizontino 2
- Referee
- Felipe Fernandes de Lima
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
