Avaí vs Athletic prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Avaí to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 55% · bookies 61% · ✓ 0 goals
In short
Avaí are slight favourites at 41%, with Athletic on 28% and the draw on 31%. Avaí are 17th and Athletic 13th in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, Avaí won two and Athletic none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Avaí win or draw
- 72%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 69%
- Athletic win or draw
- 60%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 45%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Avaí and 1.1 from Athletic. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 31% | 27% | Stats preview | #38 | |
| 2 | 40% | 31% | 28% | Updated news and prices | #129 | |
| 3 | 40% | 31% | 28% | Official lineups | #193 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Avaí: last 6
WWLLLD · 5 scored, 8 conceded
| 11 Oct | at Cuiaba | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Oct | vs Londrina | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Ceara | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Criciuma | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Goias | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | vs Vila Nova | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: WLDLW
Athletic: last 6
DLLDDW · 9 scored, 9 conceded
| 13 Oct | vs Londrina | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Oct | at Goias | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Oct | vs Sport Recife | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Fortaleza EC | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Botafogo SP | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Juventude | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LDWLL
Season stats
| Avaí | Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.21 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded per game | 1.18 |
| 1.06 | Scored per game at home | 1.24 |
| 0.94 | Scored per game away | 1.19 |
| 45% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| 48% | Both teams scored | 61% |
| 24% | Clean sheets | 24% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 24% |
League matches only, 33 games each.
Brasileirão Série B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Goias | 34 | -6 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 12 | Cuiaba | 34 | +5 | 47 | LLDWL |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 35 | +2 | 47 | WWWWL |
| 14 | Athletic | 35 | +0 | 44 | LDDLL |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 34 | -3 | 43 | DLLDW |
| 16 | Ceara | 34 | -5 | 43 | DLWWD |
| 17 | Avaí | 35 | -12 | 37 | LDWWL |
| 18 | Londrina | 35 | -7 | 32 | LWDLL |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 34 | -32 | 20 | WLLLL |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 35 | -55 | 15 | DDLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Avaí won 1, Athletic 2, 0 draws; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jun 2026 | Athletic | 1–0 | Avaí | Serie B |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Avaí | 2–1 | Athletic | Serie B |
| 14 Jul 2025 | Athletic | 4–0 | Avaí | Serie B |
Match context
- Travel for Athletic
- 839 km
- Rest days
- Avaí 6Athletic 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Avaí 2 · Athletic 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 18°C · wind 16 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série B average: 2.35 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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