São Bernardo vs Criciúma prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Criciúma to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 58% · bookies 59% · ✓ 1 goals
In short
Criciúma are slight favourites at 42%, with São Bernardo on 28% and the draw on 30%. São Bernardo are 12th and Criciúma 5th in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, São Bernardo won two and Criciúma three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- São Bernardo win or draw
- 58%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Criciúma win or draw
- 72%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 68%
- 3+ goals
- 41%
- 4+ goals
- 21%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 1.0 goals from São Bernardo and 1.3 from Criciúma. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (13%), 1–0 (10%), 0–0 (10%), 1–2 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% | 31% | 39% | Stats preview | #40 | |
| 2 | 30% | 31% | 39% | Updated news and prices | #125 | |
| 3 | 28% | 30% | 42% | Official lineups | #195 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
São Bernardo: last 6
DLWDWW · 9 scored, 5 conceded
| 11 Oct | at Juventude | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Oct | at Sport Recife | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Oct | vs CRB | 3–1 | W |
| 25 Sep | at Novorizontino | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Atletico Goianiense | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sep | at America Mineiro | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWLDL
Criciúma: last 6
WLWWLL · 6 scored, 7 conceded
| 12 Oct | vs America Mineiro | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Oct | at Ceara | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Oct | at Londrina | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Avai | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | vs Operario-PR | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Atletico Goianiense | 0–4 | L |
Last 5 away: LWLLD
Season stats
| São Bernardo | Criciúma | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.39 | Goals scored per game | 1.03 |
| 1.09 | Goals conceded per game | 0.85 |
| 1.19 | Scored per game at home | 1.12 |
| 1.59 | Scored per game away | 0.94 |
| 48% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 21% |
| 61% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 45% |
| 18% | Failed to score | 27% |
League matches only, 33 games each.
Brasileirão Série B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Vila Nova | 35 | +14 | 62 | LDWDW |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | +18 | 61 | DDWWW |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 35 | +12 | 61 | DWDWD |
| 5 | Criciúma | 35 | +6 | 59 | LWWLW |
| 6 | CRB | 35 | +4 | 55 | WLDWL |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 35 | +9 | 54 | WLDWW |
| 8 | Atletico Goianiense | 35 | +9 | 54 | LDDLW |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 35 | -1 | 51 | WLLLL |
| 10 | São Bernardo | 35 | +10 | 49 | WLDLW |
| 11 | Goias | 34 | -6 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 12 | Cuiaba | 34 | +5 | 47 | LLDWL |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 35 | +2 | 47 | WWWWL |
Head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: São Bernardo won 0, Criciúma 1, 0 draws; 1.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jun 2026 | Criciúma | 1–0 | São Bernardo | Serie B |
Match context
- Travel for Criciúma
- 620 km
- Rest days
- São Bernardo 7Criciúma 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: São Bernardo 2 · Criciúma 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 17°C · wind 13 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série B average: 2.35 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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