Grêmio vs Cruzeiro prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Cruzeiro to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 55% · ✓ 6 goals
In short
Cruzeiro are slight favourites at 44%, with Grêmio on 30% and the draw on 26%. Grêmio are 18th and Cruzeiro 7th in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Grêmio won none and Cruzeiro three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Grêmio win or draw
- 56%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Cruzeiro win or draw
- 70%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Grêmio and 1.6 from Cruzeiro. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (7%), 0–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% | 26% | 41% | Stats preview | #76 | |
| 2 | 32% | 27% | 42% | Updated news and prices | #120 | |
| 3 | 30% | 26% | 44% | Official lineups | #190 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Grêmio: last 6
DDDLLL · 5 scored, 8 conceded
| 11 Oct | vs Internacional | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Oct | at Remo | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Palmeiras | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Sep | at Botafogo | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Vasco DA Gama | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sep | at Vitoria | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: DDLWW
Cruzeiro: last 6
LWWLWL · 12 scored, 11 conceded
| 13 Oct | at RB Bragantino | 2–4 | L |
| 8 Oct | vs Sao Paulo | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Vitoria | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Santos | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Atletico Paranaense | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | at Vasco DA Gama | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: LWLLL
Season stats
| Grêmio | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.07 | Goals scored per game | 1.53 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 1.47 |
| 1.53 | Scored per game at home | 1.73 |
| 0.60 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 43% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 70% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 13% |
League matches only, 30 games each.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 32 | +34 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Flamengo | 31 | +36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | +12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | +9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | +7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | +5 | 50 | DLWLL |
| … | |||||
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | -8 | 37 | DWLDW |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | -4 | 35 | WLDWL |
| 17 | Corinthians | 32 | -8 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Grêmio | 31 | -10 | 31 | LDDDL |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 31 | -31 | 21 | WLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Grêmio won 1, Cruzeiro 4, 1 draw; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2026 | Grêmio | 3–1 | Cruzeiro | Friendlies Clubs |
| 18 Apr 2026 | Cruzeiro | 2–0 | Grêmio | Serie A |
| 5 Nov 2025 | Grêmio | 0–1 | Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| 13 Jul 2025 | Cruzeiro | 4–1 | Grêmio | Serie A |
| 28 Nov 2024 | Cruzeiro | 1–1 | Grêmio | Serie A |
| 10 Jul 2024 | Grêmio | 0–2 | Cruzeiro | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.WallaceSuspended
- OutJ. CabralNot available
- OutMatheus NascimentoNot available
Show 1 more
- OutJ. NardoniNot available
- Susp.Felipe MoraisSuspended
- OutGabriel PecBroken Leg
- OutL. SinisterraMuscle
Show 1 more
- OutN. VillarrealAnkle
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Cruzeiro
- 1,342 km
- Rest days
- Grêmio 6Cruzeiro 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Grêmio 2 · Cruzeiro 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 18°C · wind 16 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Joao Vitor Gobi
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série A average: 2.65 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
