Corinthians vs Vitória prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Corinthians to win: 62%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 56% · bookies 56% · ✓ 2 goals
In short
Corinthians are clear favourites at 62%, with Vitória on 14% and the draw on 24%. Corinthians are 17th and Vitória 14th in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Corinthians won none and Vitória two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Corinthians win or draw
- 86%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Vitória win or draw
- 38%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 70%
- 3+ goals
- 44%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 41%
- No
- 59%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Corinthians and 0.7 from Vitória. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (15%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Corinthians: last 6
LLLLLD · 5 scored, 13 conceded
| 11 Oct | at Palmeiras | 1–4 | L |
| 7 Oct | at Internacional | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Fluminense | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Sep | vs Estudiantes L.P. CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Flamengo | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Sep | at Estudiantes L.P. CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: LLLLW
Vitória: last 6
LWLDWL · 10 scored, 9 conceded
| 11 Oct | at Sao Paulo | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Oct | vs Chapecoense-sc | 4–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Cruzeiro | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Sep | vs Gremio | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | at Atletico-MG | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LDLLL
Season stats
| Corinthians | Vitória | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.03 | Goals scored per game | 1.10 |
| 1.27 | Goals conceded per game | 1.47 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.47 |
| 1.07 | Scored per game away | 0.73 |
| 47% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 40% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 37% |
| 23% | Failed to score | 30% |
League matches only, 30 games each.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | -11 | 39 | LDLLD |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | -6 | 38 | WLDWW |
| 14 | Vitória | 32 | -11 | 38 | DDLWL |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | -8 | 37 | DWLDW |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | -4 | 35 | WLDWL |
| 17 | Corinthians | 32 | -8 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | -10 | 31 | LDDDL |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 31 | -31 | 21 | WLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Corinthians won 3, Vitória 0, 3 draws; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Vitória | 0–0 | Corinthians | Serie A |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Vitória | 0–1 | Corinthians | Serie A |
| 1 Jun 2025 | Corinthians | 0–0 | Vitória | Serie A |
| 9 Nov 2024 | Vitória | 1–2 | Corinthians | Serie A |
| 4 Jul 2024 | Corinthians | 3–2 | Vitória | Serie A |
| 21 Oct 2018 | Vitória | 2–2 | Corinthians | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.M. DepaySuspended
- OutKaykeKnee
- OutZ. LabyadKnee
Show 1 more
- OutRanieleNot available
- Susp.CacaSuspended
- OutBaralhasBroken Leg
- OutCamutangaBroken Leg
Show 6 more
- OutDuduBack
- OutEduAchilles Tendon
- OutFabianoKnee
- OutNathan MendesKnee
- OutRamonLeg
- OutRiccieliCalf
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Corinthians 8Vitória 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Corinthians 2 · Vitória 2
- Referee
- Savio Pereira Sampaio
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
